SmartMatchData
← All matches
Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 270.2h before kickoff

Al-Nassr vs Al-Qadsiah

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Nassr host Al-Qadsiah in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Nassr collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Al-Qadsiah earned 12 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Nassr have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Qadsiah have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Nassr average 2.29 xG and 0.92 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Qadsiah average 3.04 xG and 1.47 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Nassr in position 3 and Al-Qadsiah in position 2. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

43.0%Home
24.1%Draw
32.9%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 43.0%

Total goals

65.7%Over 2.5
34.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

67.1%Yes
32.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Nassr 5/5, Al-Qadsiah 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Nassr
Position#3
Points28
Played11
Goal difference+17
Al-Qadsiah
Position#2
Points28
Played12
Goal difference+20

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Nassr

DWWWW
2.60Points / match
2.60Goals / match
2.29xG / match
0.92xGA / match
VS

Al-Qadsiah

WWWLW
2.40Points / match
3.20Goals / match
3.04xG / match
1.47xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Nassr at home
W-D-L5-0-0
Points / match3.00
Goals / match2.60
xG / match2.67
Al-Qadsiah away
W-D-L5-0-0
Points / match3.00
Goals / match3.20
xG / match3.20

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Nassr

12 Sep09 Oct20 Oct23 Oct29 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Qadsiah

09 Oct16 Oct20 Oct23 Oct29 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Nassr expected goals

1.81

Al-Qadsiah expected goals

1.57
1–110.5%
2–18.8%
1–27.6%
2–26.9%
2–05.6%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Nassr

29 OctWH · Al-KholoodxG 3.76 · xGA 1.965–3
23 OctWA · Al-FaisalyxG 0.58 · xGA 1.103–1
20 OctWH · Neom SCxG 2.78 · xGA 0.411–0
09 OctWH · Al-Diraiyah ClubxG 3.26 · xGA 0.773–0
12 SepDA · Al-KhaleejxG 1.08 · xGA 0.381–1

Al-Qadsiah

29 OctWA · Al-RiyadhxG 5.19 · xGA 1.346–0
23 OctLH · Al-HilalxG 0.79 · xGA 2.862–3
20 OctWA · Al-TaawounxG 2.14 · xGA 0.401–0
16 OctWH · AbhaxG 1.58 · xGA 0.352–1
09 OctWA · Al-KholoodxG 5.48 · xGA 2.405–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

03 May 2026Al-Qadsiah — Al-Nassr3–1
08 Jan 2026Al-Nassr — Al-Qadsiah1–2
18 Apr 2025Al-Qadsiah — Al-Nassr2–1
22 Nov 2024Al-Nassr — Al-Qadsiah1–2

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.