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Saudi Pro League · Saudi Pro League 26/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 270.2h before kickoff

Al-Ahli vs Al-Faisaly

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Al-Ahli host Al-Faisaly in Saudi Pro League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Al-Ahli collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Al-Faisaly earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Al-Ahli have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Al-Faisaly have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Al-Ahli average 3.48 xG and 1.52 xGA over 5 recent matches; Al-Faisaly average 1.36 xG and 1.55 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Al-Ahli in position 6 and Al-Faisaly in position 15. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

78.3%Home
14.2%Draw
7.5%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 78.3%

Total goals

70.1%Over 2.5
29.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

52.6%Yes
47.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Al-Ahli 5/5, Al-Faisaly 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Saudi Pro League page →
Al-Ahli
Position#6
Points21
Played11
Goal difference+9
Al-Faisaly
Position#15
Points10
Played12
Goal difference-11

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Al-Ahli

WWWWL
2.40Points / match
3.00Goals / match
3.48xG / match
1.52xGA / match
VS

Al-Faisaly

WDLWL
1.40Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.36xG / match
1.55xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Al-Ahli at home
W-D-L5-0-0
Points / match3.00
Goals / match3.80
xG / match3.51
Al-Faisaly away
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match1.00
xG / match0.87

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Al-Ahli

11 Sep09 Oct19 Oct23 Oct30 Oct
xGxGA

Al-Faisaly

15 Oct19 Oct23 Oct27 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Al-Ahli expected goals

2.81

Al-Faisaly expected goals

0.81
2–010.6%
3–09.9%
2–18.6%
3–18.0%
1–07.0%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Al-Ahli

30 OctLA · Al-ShababxG 1.00 · xGA 4.251–6
23 OctWH · Al-KhaleejxG 3.94 · xGA 0.504–1
19 OctWA · Al-FayhaxG 4.12 · xGA 0.623–2
09 OctWA · Al-FatehxG 2.54 · xGA 0.454–0
11 SepWH · Al-HazemxG 5.78 · xGA 1.783–1

Al-Faisaly

31 OctLA · Al-FayhaxG 1.03 · xGA 1.241–4
27 OctWA · AbhaxG 0.95 · xGA 1.681–0
23 OctLH · Al-NassrxG 1.10 · xGA 0.581–3
19 OctDA · Al-ShababxG 1.54 · xGA 1.272–2
15 OctWH · Al-KholoodxG 2.20 · xGA 2.983–2

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More Saudi Pro League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.