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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 94.6h before kickoff

Romania vs Poland

🇷🇴 Romania

🇵🇱 Poland

Sat, 14 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Romania host Poland in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Romania collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). Poland earned 4 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Romania have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Poland have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Romania average 0.65 xG and 2.43 xGA over 4 recent matches; Poland average 1.74 xG and 1.04 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

13.5%Home

21.5%Draw

65.0%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 65.0%

Total goals

58.3%Over 2.5

41.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.4%Yes

44.6%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

Romania

No pre-match table context available.

Poland

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Romania

WLLLL

0.60Points / match

1.40Goals / match

0.65xG / match

2.43xGA / match

Poland

LDLWL

0.80Points / match

1.60Goals / match

1.74xG / match

1.04xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Romania at home

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match2.60

xG / match0.76

Poland away

W-D-L1-0-4

Points / match0.60

Goals / match1.00

xG / match1.38

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Romania

xGxGA

Poland

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Romania expected goals

0.94

Poland expected goals

2.00

1–110.8%

0–210.6%

1–29.9%

0–19.7%

0–37.1%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.