SmartMatchData
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Ligue 1 · Ligue 1 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 22.7h before kickoff

Nice vs RC Strasbourg

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Nice host RC Strasbourg in Ligue 1. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Nice collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). RC Strasbourg earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Nice have 1 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, RC Strasbourg have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Nice average 1.11 xG and 1.65 xGA over 5 recent matches; RC Strasbourg average 1.24 xG and 1.96 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Nice in position 15 and RC Strasbourg in position 9. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

34.8%Home
28.2%Draw
37.1%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Away 37.1%

Total goals

50.0%Over 2.5
50.0%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

55.5%Yes
44.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Nice 5/5, RC Strasbourg 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Ligue 1 page →
Nice
Position#15
Points5
Played5
Goal difference-3
RC Strasbourg
Position#9
Points7
Played5
Goal difference0

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Nice

DLDLW
1.00Points / match
0.60Goals / match
1.11xG / match
1.65xGA / match
VS

RC Strasbourg

LWWDL
1.40Points / match
2.00Goals / match
1.24xG / match
1.96xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Nice at home
W-D-L1-4-0
Points / match1.40
Goals / match0.80
xG / match1.28
RC Strasbourg away
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match2.00
xG / match1.48

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Nice

22 Aug30 Aug05 Sep12 Sep20 Sep
xGxGA

RC Strasbourg

21 Aug29 Aug06 Sep12 Sep19 Sep
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Nice expected goals

1.31

RC Strasbourg expected goals

1.36
1–113.4%
1–28.4%
0–18.3%
2–18.1%
0–08.0%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Nice

20 SepWH · LillexG 1.50 · xGA 1.582–1
12 SepLA · AuxerrexG 1.08 · xGA 1.740–1
05 SepDH · Le MansxG 1.12 · xGA 1.281–1
30 AugLA · Paris FCxG 0.78 · xGA 2.380–3
22 AugDH · LorientxG 1.05 · xGA 1.280–0

RC Strasbourg

19 SepLA · Paris FCxG 0.24 · xGA 1.051–2
12 SepDH · AS MonacoxG 1.02 · xGA 1.051–1
06 SepWA · TroyesxG 2.95 · xGA 2.946–2
29 AugWH · RC LensxG 1.83 · xGA 2.912–1
21 AugLA · Olympique de MarseillexG 0.18 · xGA 1.860–4

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

04 Apr 2026RC Strasbourg — Nice3–1
03 Jan 2026Nice — RC Strasbourg1–1
12 Apr 2025RC Strasbourg — Nice2–2
24 Nov 2024Nice — RC Strasbourg2–1
28 Apr 2024RC Strasbourg — Nice1–3

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Nice won 2–1 against RC Strasbourg. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.25 for Nice and 0.63 for RC Strasbourg. Nice generated the higher xG total. Nice scored +0.75 goals relative to xG and RC Strasbourg scored +0.37 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Nice registered 11 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 54.5%); RC Strasbourg recorded 11 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 27.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (37.1%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Nice vs RC Strasbourg

Final score: 2–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.25 – 0.63.

Shots: 11 – 11.

Shots on target: 6 – 3.

Possession: 46.00% – 54.00%.

Corners: 2 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
× Miss1X2 · predicted Away, actual Home
✓ HitOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Over
✓ HitBTTS · predicted Yes, actual Yes

More Ligue 1 match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.