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UEFA Champions League · UEFA Champions League 26/27 Model vnext-uefa-shadow-2026-10 · locked 333.4h before kickoff

Inter vs VfB Stuttgart

Inter

VfB Stuttgart

Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Inter host VfB Stuttgart in UEFA Champions League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Inter collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). VfB Stuttgart earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Inter have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, VfB Stuttgart have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Inter average 2.11 xG and 2.05 xGA over 5 recent matches; VfB Stuttgart average 1.68 xG and 1.14 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

48.0%Home

23.0%Draw

29.1%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 48.0%

Total goals

68.7%Over 2.5

31.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

68.7%Yes

31.3%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Inter 5/5, VfB Stuttgart 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Champions League page →

Inter

No pre-match table context available.

VfB Stuttgart

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Inter

LLLWW

1.20Points / match

1.80Goals / match

2.11xG / match

2.05xGA / match

VfB Stuttgart

LWWDL

1.40Points / match

1.60Goals / match

1.68xG / match

1.14xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Inter at home

W-D-L1-0-4

Points / match0.60

Goals / match1.20

xG / match1.86

VfB Stuttgart away

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match1.60

xG / match2.03

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Inter

xGxGA

VfB Stuttgart

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Inter expected goals

2.01

VfB Stuttgart expected goals

1.54

1–19.7%

2–18.9%

2–26.9%

1–26.9%

3–16.0%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.