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UEFA Champions League · UEFA Champions League 26/27 Model vnext-uefa-shadow-2026-10 · locked 333.4h before kickoff

Lille vs FC Bayern München

Lille

FC Bayern München

Wed, 25 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Lille host FC Bayern München in UEFA Champions League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Lille collected 1 points (0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses). FC Bayern München earned 9 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Lille have 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, FC Bayern München have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Lille average 1.05 xG and 1.69 xGA over 5 recent matches; FC Bayern München average 2.31 xG and 0.92 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

22.4%Home

22.3%Draw

55.2%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 55.2%

Total goals

66.1%Over 2.5

33.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

64.5%Yes

35.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Lille 5/5, FC Bayern München 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Champions League page →

Lille

No pre-match table context available.

FC Bayern München

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Lille

LLLLD

0.20Points / match

1.00Goals / match

1.05xG / match

1.69xGA / match

FC Bayern München

DWDDW

1.80Points / match

2.60Goals / match

2.31xG / match

0.92xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Lille at home

W-D-L2-0-3

Points / match1.20

Goals / match2.80

xG / match1.54

FC Bayern München away

W-D-L3-1-1

Points / match2.00

Goals / match3.40

xG / match3.12

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Lille

xGxGA

FC Bayern München

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Lille expected goals

1.30

FC Bayern München expected goals

2.11

1–19.9%

1–29.6%

0–27.4%

1–36.7%

2–26.2%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.