SmartMatchData
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Serie A · Serie A 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 74.1h before kickoff

Frosinone vs Torino

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Frosinone host Torino in Serie A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Frosinone collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Torino earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Frosinone have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Torino have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Frosinone average 1.89 xG and 2.60 xGA over 5 recent matches; Torino average 1.22 xG and 1.29 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Frosinone in position 7 and Torino in position 11. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 2 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

48.8%Home
23.7%Draw
27.4%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 48.8%

Total goals

65.4%Over 2.5
34.6%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

65.9%Yes
34.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Frosinone 5/5, Torino 5/5; home/away splits 4/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Serie A page →
Frosinone
Position#7
Points14
Played8
Goal difference+4
Torino
Position#11
Points11
Played9
Goal difference-1

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Frosinone

DWLWD
1.60Points / match
2.20Goals / match
1.89xG / match
2.60xGA / match
VS

Torino

DDWWL
1.60Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.22xG / match
1.29xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Frosinone at home
W-D-L3-0-2
Points / match1.80
Goals / match1.80
xG / match1.57
Torino away
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match1.60
xG / match1.11

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Frosinone

12 Sep20 Sep10 Oct16 Oct25 Oct
xGxGA

Torino

19 Sep19 Oct23 Oct27 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Frosinone expected goals

1.94

Torino expected goals

1.42
1–110.4%
2–19.3%
1–26.8%
2–26.6%
2–06.5%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

21 Apr 2024Torino — Frosinone0–0
10 Dec 2023Frosinone — Torino0–0

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Frosinone won 2–0 against Torino. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.89 for Frosinone and 0.66 for Torino. Frosinone generated the higher xG total. Frosinone scored +0.11 goals relative to xG and Torino scored -0.66 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Frosinone registered 20 shots, with 8 on target (shot accuracy: 40.0%); Torino recorded 12 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 25.0%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (48.8%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Frosinone vs Torino

Final score: 2–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.89 – 0.66.

Shots: 20 – 12.

Shots on target: 8 – 3.

Possession: 46.00% – 54.00%.

Corners: 7 – 7.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
✓ Hit1X2 · predicted Home, actual Home
× MissOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Under
× MissBTTS · predicted Yes, actual No

More Serie A match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.