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Brasileirão Série A · Brasileirão Série A 2026 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 322.7h before kickoff

Fluminense vs Mirassol

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Fluminense host Mirassol in Brasileirão Série A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Fluminense collected 6 points (2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses). Mirassol earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Fluminense have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Mirassol have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Fluminense average 1.37 xG and 1.23 xGA over 5 recent matches; Mirassol average 1.77 xG and 1.56 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Fluminense in position 4 and Mirassol in position 14. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 3 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

52.0%Home
25.2%Draw
22.8%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 52.0%

Total goals

54.6%Over 2.5
45.4%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

56.2%Yes
43.8%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Fluminense 5/5, Mirassol 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Brasileirão Série A page →
Fluminense
Position#4
Points57
Played34
Goal difference+13
Mirassol
Position#14
Points40
Played34
Goal difference-9

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Fluminense

LLLWW
1.20Points / match
1.40Goals / match
1.37xG / match
1.23xGA / match
VS

Mirassol

LWDLW
1.40Points / match
1.00Goals / match
1.77xG / match
1.56xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Fluminense at home
W-D-L4-0-1
Points / match2.40
Goals / match2.00
xG / match1.57
Mirassol away
W-D-L2-1-2
Points / match1.40
Goals / match1.00
xG / match1.55

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Fluminense

11 Oct18 Oct24 Oct28 Oct06 Nov
xGxGA

Mirassol

11 Oct16 Oct24 Oct30 Oct03 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Fluminense expected goals

1.76

Mirassol expected goals

1.10
1–112.1%
2–19.8%
1–09.1%
2–08.9%
0–06.7%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Fluminense

06 NovWA · VitóriaxG 1.90 · xGA 0.823–0
28 OctWH · InternacionalxG 1.49 · xGA 1.052–1
24 OctLA · ChapecoensexG 1.38 · xGA 0.521–2
18 OctLH · SantosxG 1.09 · xGA 2.071–2
11 OctLA · FlamengoxG 0.97 · xGA 1.680–1

Mirassol

03 NovWA · ChapecoensexG 2.19 · xGA 0.542–1
30 OctLA · CorinthiansxG 0.03 · xGA 2.520–2
24 OctDH · São PauloxG 1.28 · xGA 1.111–1
16 OctWH · InternacionalxG 3.21 · xGA 0.872–0
11 OctLA · BahiaxG 2.15 · xGA 2.750–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

23 May 2026Mirassol — Fluminense1–0
06 Nov 2025Fluminense — Mirassol1–0
09 Oct 2025Mirassol — Fluminense2–1

More Brasileirão Série A match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

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Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.