Famalicão vs FC Arouca

Famalicão host FC Arouca in Liga Portugal Betclic. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Famalicão collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). FC Arouca earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Famalicão have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, FC Arouca have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Famalicão average 1.12 xG and 1.58 xGA over 5 recent matches; FC Arouca average 1.33 xG and 1.03 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Famalicão in position 11 and FC Arouca in position 5. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Famalicão won 1–0 against FC Arouca. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 0.73 for Famalicão and 0.35 for FC Arouca. Famalicão generated the higher xG total. Famalicão scored +0.27 goals relative to xG and FC Arouca scored -0.35 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Famalicão registered 14 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 35.7%); FC Arouca recorded 7 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 42.9%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (35.6%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Famalicão vs FC Arouca

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 0.73 – 0.35.

Shots: 14 – 7.

Shots on target: 5 – 3.

Possession: 53.00% – 47.00%.

Corners: 9 – 2.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.