SmartMatchData
← All matches
Liga Portugal Betclic · Liga Portugal Betclic 26/27 Model vnext-shadow-2026-10 · locked 166.5h before kickoff

Estoril Praia vs Marítimo

· Postponed · provider status verified 12 Nov 2026 05:30 UTC

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Estoril Praia host Marítimo in Liga Portugal Betclic. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Estoril Praia collected 0 points (0 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses). Marítimo earned 1 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Estoril Praia have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Marítimo have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Estoril Praia average 1.14 xG and 1.82 xGA over 5 recent matches; Marítimo average 0.49 xG and 1.68 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Estoril Praia in position 18 and Marítimo in position 14. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

46.0%Home
28.1%Draw
25.9%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 46.0%

Total goals

46.3%Over 2.5
53.7%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.1%Yes
48.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Estoril Praia 5/5, Marítimo 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Liga Portugal Betclic page →
Estoril Praia
Position#18
Points2
Played10
Goal difference-14
Marítimo
Position#14
Points8
Played9
Goal difference-10

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Estoril Praia

LLLLL
0.00Points / match
0.60Goals / match
1.14xG / match
1.82xGA / match
VS

Marítimo

LLDLL
0.20Points / match
0.60Goals / match
0.49xG / match
1.68xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Estoril Praia at home
W-D-L0-2-3
Points / match0.40
Goals / match0.60
xG / match1.21
Marítimo away
W-D-L1-1-3
Points / match0.80
Goals / match1.00
xG / match0.88

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Estoril Praia

14 Sep20 Sep10 Oct25 Oct31 Oct
xGxGA

Marítimo

05 Sep14 Sep19 Sep10 Oct23 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Estoril Praia expected goals

1.48

Marítimo expected goals

1.05
1–113.5%
1–010.7%
2–19.2%
0–09.1%
2–08.7%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Estoril Praia

31 OctLA · FC PortoxG 0.63 · xGA 3.100–425 OctLH · MoreirensexG 2.01 · xGA 1.331–3
10 OctLA · Académico Viseu FCxG 1.36 · xGA 0.731–2
20 SepLH · Casa PiaxG 0.95 · xGA 2.171–2
14 SepLA · Sporting BragaxG 0.75 · xGA 1.790–1

Marítimo

23 OctLA · Vitória SCxG 0.52 · xGA 1.780–5
10 OctLH · FC PortoxG 0.19 · xGA 2.131–2
19 SepDA · Gil VicentexG 0.86 · xGA 1.201–1
14 SepLA · MoreirensexG 0.76 · xGA 2.001–3
05 SepLH · BenficaxG 0.12 · xGA 1.310–3

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

More Liga Portugal Betclic match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.