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Premier League · Premier League 26/27 Model v1.1 · locked 292.2h before kickoff

Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Bournemouth host Nottingham Forest in Premier League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Bournemouth collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Nottingham Forest earned 5 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Bournemouth have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Nottingham Forest have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Bournemouth average 1.75 xG and 1.04 xGA over 4 recent matches; Nottingham Forest average 1.89 xG and 1.27 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Bournemouth in position 6 and Nottingham Forest in position 16. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

41.8%Home
28.1%Draw
30.0%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 41.8%

Total goals

49.1%Over 2.5
50.9%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

54.3%Yes
45.7%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Bournemouth 5/5, Nottingham Forest 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Premier League page →
Bournemouth
Position#6
Points15
Played10
Goal difference+1
Nottingham Forest
Position#16
Points10
Played10
Goal difference-3

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Bournemouth

LWWWW
2.40Points / match
1.80Goals / match
1.75xG / match
1.04xGA / match
VS

Nottingham Forest

LDDLW
1.00Points / match
1.00Goals / match
1.89xG / match
1.27xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Bournemouth at home
W-D-L2-2-1
Points / match1.60
Goals / match1.20
xG / match1.49
Nottingham Forest away
W-D-L1-2-2
Points / match1.00
Goals / match1.20
xG / match2.22

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Bournemouth

10 Oct25 Oct31 Oct08 Nov
xGxGA

Nottingham Forest

11 Oct23 Oct31 Oct07 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Bournemouth expected goals

1.44

Nottingham Forest expected goals

1.19
1–113.4%
1–09.2%
2–18.9%
0–08.3%
2–07.5%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

24 May 2026Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth1–1
26 Oct 2025Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest2–0
25 Jan 2025Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest5–0
17 Aug 2024Nottingham Forest — Bournemouth1–1
04 Feb 2024Bournemouth — Nottingham Forest1–1

More Premier League match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

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