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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 54.8h before kickoff

Türkiye vs Belgium

🇹🇷 Türkiye

🇧🇪 Belgium

Thu, 12 Nov 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Türkiye host Belgium in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Türkiye collected 3 points (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). Belgium earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Türkiye have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Belgium have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Türkiye average 1.77 xG and 1.76 xGA over 4 recent matches; Belgium average 1.41 xG and 1.56 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

15.0%Home

22.9%Draw

62.2%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Away 62.2%

Total goals

55.7%Over 2.5

44.3%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

56.6%Yes

43.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

Türkiye

No pre-match table context available.

Belgium

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Türkiye

WLLLL

0.60Points / match

1.00Goals / match

1.77xG / match

1.76xGA / match

Belgium

WWLWL

1.80Points / match

1.80Goals / match

1.41xG / match

1.56xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Türkiye at home

W-D-L2-1-2

Points / match1.40

Goals / match1.00

xG / match2.05

Belgium away

W-D-L1-1-3

Points / match0.80

Goals / match1.20

xG / match1.67

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Türkiye

xGxGA

Belgium

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Türkiye expected goals

0.97

Belgium expected goals

1.93

1–111.2%

0–210.3%

1–29.9%

0–19.7%

0–36.6%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.