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Brasileirão Série A · Brasileirão Série A 2026 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 63.1h before kickoff

Palmeiras vs Remo

· Final

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Palmeiras host Remo in Brasileirão Série A. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Palmeiras collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Remo earned 6 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Palmeiras have 5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Remo have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Palmeiras average 2.23 xG and 0.97 xGA over 5 recent matches; Remo average 0.85 xG and 1.67 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Palmeiras in position 2 and Remo in position 19. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

72.9%Home
17.3%Draw
9.7%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 72.9%

Total goals

63.5%Over 2.5
36.5%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

51.5%Yes
48.5%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Palmeiras 5/5, Remo 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Brasileirão Série A page →
Palmeiras
Position#2
Points70
Played33
Goal difference+34
Remo
Position#19
Points29
Played33
Goal difference-15

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Palmeiras

WWWWD
2.60Points / match
1.80Goals / match
2.23xG / match
0.97xGA / match
VS

Remo

DDDLW
1.20Points / match
0.80Goals / match
0.85xG / match
1.67xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Palmeiras at home
W-D-L5-0-0
Points / match3.00
Goals / match2.60
xG / match2.48
Remo away
W-D-L0-2-3
Points / match0.40
Goals / match0.60
xG / match0.64

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Palmeiras

09 Oct11 Oct17 Oct24 Oct28 Oct
xGxGA

Remo

07 Oct10 Oct18 Oct23 Oct29 Oct
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Palmeiras expected goals

2.46

Remo expected goals

0.81
2–011.5%
3–09.4%
2–19.3%
1–08.7%
1–18.3%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

Palmeiras

28 OctDA · SantosxG 2.56 · xGA 1.810–0
24 OctWH · Red Bull BragantinoxG 3.82 · xGA 0.542–0
17 OctWA · AthleticoxG 0.32 · xGA 1.262–0
11 OctWH · CorinthiansxG 2.66 · xGA 0.704–1
09 OctWH · BahiaxG 1.79 · xGA 0.521–0

Remo

29 OctWH · BotafogoxG 0.64 · xGA 0.892–1
23 OctLA · CruzeiroxG 0.30 · xGA 0.970–1
18 OctDH · Red Bull BragantinoxG 1.47 · xGA 2.181–1
10 OctDA · Vasco da GamaxG 0.30 · xGA 1.350–0
07 OctDH · GrêmioxG 1.52 · xGA 2.981–1

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

Not enough prior league meetings in the database to show a meaningful head-to-head section.

Post-match analysis

Final score, verified match data and the original model prediction.

Palmeiras won 6–1 against Remo. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 4.78 for Palmeiras and 0.32 for Remo. Palmeiras generated the higher xG total. Palmeiras scored +1.22 goals relative to xG and Remo scored +0.68 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Palmeiras registered 19 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 47.4%); Remo recorded 11 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 45.5%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (72.9%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Post-match statistical review

Verified final-match data, shown only where the provider supplies both teams' values.

Palmeiras vs Remo

Final score: 6–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 4.78 – 0.32.

Shots: 19 – 11.

Shots on target: 9 – 5.

Possession: 58.00% – 42.00%.

Corners: 5 – 3.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.

Forward result

The prediction above remained locked; this section compares it with the final result.

Model performance →
✓ Hit1X2 · predicted Home, actual Home
✓ HitOver 2.5 · predicted Over, actual Over
✓ HitBTTS · predicted Yes, actual Yes

More Brasileirão Série A match analysis

Nearby locked predictions from the same season.

League page →

Continue exploring

Team, league and prediction pages connected to this match.