Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

Orlando City SC host New England Revolution in MLS. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Orlando City SC collected 6 points (1 wins, 3 draws and 1 losses). New England Revolution earned 12 points from 5 matches (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Orlando City SC have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, New England Revolution have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Orlando City SC average 1.49 xG and 2.79 xGA over 5 recent matches; New England Revolution average 1.43 xG and 1.85 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Orlando City SC in position 19 and New England Revolution in position 4. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Orlando City SC won 1–0 against New England Revolution. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.16 for Orlando City SC and 0.89 for New England Revolution. Orlando City SC generated the higher xG total. Orlando City SC scored -0.16 goals relative to xG and New England Revolution scored -0.89 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Orlando City SC registered 15 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 26.7%); New England Revolution recorded 9 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 33.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (48.4%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Orlando City SC vs New England Revolution

Final score: 1–0. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.16 – 0.89.

Shots: 15 – 9.

Shots on target: 4 – 3.

Possession: 35.00% – 65.00%.

Corners: 5 – 8.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.