Millwall vs Derby County

Millwall host Derby County in Championship. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Millwall collected 5 points (1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses). Derby County earned 3 points from 5 matches (0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Millwall have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Derby County have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Millwall average 1.49 xG and 1.27 xGA over 5 recent matches; Derby County average 1.11 xG and 1.39 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Millwall in position 13 and Derby County in position 23. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 4 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Millwall won 4–1 against Derby County. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 4.12 for Millwall and 1.24 for Derby County. Millwall generated the higher xG total. Millwall scored -0.12 goals relative to xG and Derby County scored -0.24 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Millwall registered 22 shots, with 9 on target (shot accuracy: 40.9%); Derby County recorded 13 shots, with 4 on target (shot accuracy: 30.8%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Home (49.5%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection matched the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Millwall vs Derby County

Final score: 4–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 4.12 – 1.24.

Shots: 22 – 13.

Shots on target: 9 – 4.

Possession: 56.00% – 44.00%.

Corners: 4 – 5.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.