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UEFA Nations League · UEFA Nations League 26/27 Model international-global-v4-shadow-2026-11 · locked 57.5h before kickoff

England vs Croatia

England

🇭🇷 Croatia

Thu, 12 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

England host Croatia in UEFA Nations League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, England collected 12 points (4 wins, 0 draws and 1 losses). Croatia earned 3 points from 5 matches (1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, England have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Croatia have 1 wins, 1 draws and 3 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, England average 2.92 xG and 1.25 xGA over 4 recent matches; Croatia average 1.18 xG and 2.58 xGA over 4 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

79.3%Home

15.0%Draw

5.7%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 79.3%

Total goals

71.9%Over 2.5

28.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.6%Yes

42.4%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent-match sample unavailable; home/away split sample unavailable. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Nations League page →

England

No pre-match table context available.

Croatia

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

England

WLWWW

2.40Points / match

3.80Goals / match

2.92xG / match

1.25xGA / match

Croatia

LWLLL

0.60Points / match

0.80Goals / match

1.18xG / match

2.58xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

England at home

W-D-L3-0-2

Points / match1.80

Goals / match2.60

xG / match1.90

Croatia away

W-D-L1-1-3

Points / match0.80

Goals / match1.20

xG / match1.16

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

England

xGxGA

Croatia

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

England expected goals

3.47

Croatia expected goals

0.68

3–011.1%

4–09.6%

2–09.6%

3–17.5%

5–06.7%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.