Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Derby County host Bolton Wanderers in Championship. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Derby County collected 3 points (0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses). Bolton Wanderers earned 7 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Derby County have 0 wins, 1 draws and 4 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Bolton Wanderers have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Derby County average 1.11 xG and 1.39 xGA over 5 recent matches; Bolton Wanderers average 1.65 xG and 2.08 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Derby County in position 23 and Bolton Wanderers in position 18. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Derby County won 3–1 against Bolton Wanderers. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.55 for Derby County and 1.69 for Bolton Wanderers. Bolton Wanderers generated the higher xG total. Derby County scored +1.45 goals relative to xG and Bolton Wanderers scored -0.69 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Derby County registered 9 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 55.6%); Bolton Wanderers recorded 17 shots, with 6 on target (shot accuracy: 35.3%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (41.1%); the actual outcome was Home, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Derby County vs Bolton Wanderers

Final score: 3–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.55 – 1.69.

Shots: 9 – 17.

Shots on target: 5 – 6.

Possession: 30.00% – 70.00%.

Corners: 4 – 6.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.