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Liga MX · Liga MX 2026/27 Model vnext-global-shadow-2026-11 · locked 324.3h before kickoff

CD Guadalajara vs Cruz Azul

· Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

CD Guadalajara host Cruz Azul in Liga MX. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, CD Guadalajara collected 11 points (3 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses). Cruz Azul earned 15 points from 5 matches (5 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, CD Guadalajara have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Cruz Azul have 3 wins, 1 draws and 1 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, CD Guadalajara average 1.45 xG and 0.94 xGA over 5 recent matches; Cruz Azul average 1.97 xG and 1.40 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places CD Guadalajara in position 3 and Cruz Azul in position 1. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

41.9%Home
25.4%Draw
32.7%Away
Highest 1X2 probability: Home 41.9%

Total goals

60.2%Over 2.5
39.8%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

62.9%Yes
37.1%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches CD Guadalajara 5/5, Cruz Azul 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Liga MX page →
CD Guadalajara
Position#3
Points30
Played16
Goal difference+11
Cruz Azul
Position#1
Points32
Played16
Goal difference+11

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

CD Guadalajara

DWWWD
2.20Points / match
1.60Goals / match
1.45xG / match
0.94xGA / match
VS

Cruz Azul

WWWWW
3.00Points / match
3.00Goals / match
1.97xG / match
1.40xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

CD Guadalajara at home
W-D-L3-1-1
Points / match2.00
Goals / match1.80
xG / match1.21
Cruz Azul away
W-D-L3-1-1
Points / match2.00
Goals / match2.20
xG / match1.96

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

CD Guadalajara

17 Oct21 Oct25 Oct01 Nov09 Nov
xGxGA

Cruz Azul

18 Oct22 Oct26 Oct02 Nov08 Nov
xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

CD Guadalajara expected goals

1.66

Cruz Azul expected goals

1.45
1–111.7%
2–18.9%
1–27.8%
2–26.5%
1–06.4%
Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Recent matches

The same pre-kickoff history used for context above.

CD Guadalajara

09 NovDA · Club LeónxG 1.62 · xGA 0.351–1
01 NovWH · Atlante FCxG 1.56 · xGA 1.554–2
25 OctWA · CF MonterreyxG 1.77 · xGA 1.851–0
21 OctWH · Club NecaxaxG 0.69 · xGA 0.531–0
17 OctDH · Tigres UANLxG 1.61 · xGA 0.421–1

Cruz Azul

08 NovWA · Tigres UANLxG 2.15 · xGA 1.703–2
02 NovWH · Club LeónxG 1.48 · xGA 2.142–1
26 OctWA · Querétaro FCxG 1.67 · xGA 1.183–1
22 OctWA · CF PachucaxG 1.84 · xGA 1.122–1
18 OctWH · FC JuárezxG 2.69 · xGA 0.855–0

Head to head

Prior meetings in the SmartMatchData league database.

17 May 2026CD Guadalajara — Cruz Azul1–2
14 May 2026Cruz Azul — CD Guadalajara2–2
22 Feb 2026Cruz Azul — CD Guadalajara2–1
01 Dec 2025Cruz Azul — CD Guadalajara3–2
28 Nov 2025CD Guadalajara — Cruz Azul0–0

More Liga MX match analysis

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