Aston Villa vs Fulham

Aston Villa host Fulham in Premier League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Aston Villa collected 8 points (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). Fulham earned 8 points from 5 matches (2 wins, 2 draws and 1 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Aston Villa have 2 wins, 1 draws and 2 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Fulham have 1 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Aston Villa average 1.18 xG and 1.57 xGA over 5 recent matches; Fulham average 1.21 xG and 0.94 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

At the prediction timestamp, the reconstructed league table places Aston Villa in position 14 and Fulham in position 15. The table uses matches dated before the prediction timestamp; later backfills cannot be independently excluded.

The database contains 5 earlier head-to-head meetings in this competition, shown below. Historical meetings provide context, not certainty.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Aston Villa and Fulham drew 1–1. The following review separates the final score from the locked pre-match model forecast.

Expected goals were 1.71 for Aston Villa and 2.21 for Fulham. Fulham generated the higher xG total. Aston Villa scored -0.71 goals relative to xG and Fulham scored -1.21 relative to xG. Goals minus xG is a descriptive difference, not proof of finishing skill or luck in one match.

Aston Villa registered 16 shots, with 3 on target (shot accuracy: 18.8%); Fulham recorded 14 shots, with 5 on target (shot accuracy: 35.7%). Shot accuracy is shots on target divided by total shots, not a measure of chance quality.

The model's highest-probability 1X2 outcome was Away (38.5%); the actual outcome was Draw, so the leading selection did not match the result. The pre-match probabilities were not recalculated after the fixture.

Aston Villa vs Fulham

Final score: 1–1. These are match statistics, not pre-kickoff model inputs.

Expected goals (xG): 1.71 – 2.21.

Shots: 16 – 14.

Shots on target: 3 – 5.

Possession: 45.00% – 55.00%.

Corners: 7 – 7.

Unavailable statistics are omitted rather than estimated. The original locked prediction remains unchanged.