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UEFA Champions League · UEFA Champions League 26/27 Model vnext-uefa-shadow-2026-10 · locked 333.5h before kickoff

Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund

Arsenal

Borussia Dortmund

Tue, 24 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Pre-kickoff prediction

Pre-match analysis and preview

Verified historical context from before kickoff; preserved for comparison after the final result.

Arsenal host Borussia Dortmund in UEFA Champions League. This preview compares historical records dated before the prediction was locked with the model's pre-match probabilities. Probabilities describe estimated outcomes, not guaranteed results.

Across their last 5 recorded league matches, Arsenal collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses). Borussia Dortmund earned 9 points from 5 matches (3 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses). These are separate recent-form samples, not a forecast of the final score.

At home, Arsenal have 4 wins, 1 draws and 0 losses in their last 5 recorded home matches. On the road, Borussia Dortmund have 1 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses across 5 away matches.

Where full-quality xG is available, Arsenal average 2.10 xG and 1.24 xGA over 5 recent matches; Borussia Dortmund average 2.17 xG and 1.49 xGA over 5 matches. xG coverage can be smaller than the recent-results sample.

This analysis is based on available league records and the pre-match snapshot. Missing samples are not estimated; player availability, injuries and tactical claims are not inferred.

Model prediction

Frozen pre-kickoff probabilities recorded before kickoff.

Methodology →

1X2

54.9%Home

24.1%Draw

21.0%Away

Highest 1X2 probability: Home 54.9%

Total goals

56.9%Over 2.5

43.1%Under 2.5

Both teams to score

57.1%Yes

42.9%No

Form sample used at prediction time: recent matches Arsenal 5/5, Borussia Dortmund 5/5; home/away splits 5/5 and 5/5. xG averages may be based on fewer matches where source statistics are incomplete. Model probabilities are estimates, not certainty or a calibrated confidence rating.

Pre-match league context

Reconstructed from fixtures dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

UEFA Champions League page →

Arsenal

No pre-match table context available.

Borussia Dortmund

No pre-match table context available.

Recent form comparison

Last five league matches dated before the locked prediction timestamp.

Arsenal

WWWDW

2.60Points / match

1.80Goals / match

2.10xG / match

1.24xGA / match

Borussia Dortmund

LWLWW

1.80Points / match

1.60Goals / match

2.17xG / match

1.49xGA / match

Home / away form

Home side's latest home matches vs away side's latest away matches before kickoff.

Arsenal at home

W-D-L4-1-0

Points / match2.60

Goals / match1.80

xG / match1.94

Borussia Dortmund away

W-D-L1-0-4

Points / match0.60

Goals / match0.80

xG / match1.37

xG trends

Full-quality provider xG only, using matches played before kickoff.

Arsenal

xGxGA

Borussia Dortmund

xGxGA

Expected goals & scorelines

Dixon-Coles-adjusted scoreline estimates from the locked model goal rates.

Arsenal expected goals

1.88

Borussia Dortmund expected goals

1.09

1–111.5%

2–19.9%

2–09.1%

1–08.7%

3–16.2%

Scoreline percentages are a finite-grid Dixon-Coles estimate derived from the frozen model's λ values. They are statistical estimates, not guarantees.