Celtic's attack travels, but Hearts' defence does not

The Scottish Premiership's early venue splits reveal several different stories. Celtic have generated more expected goals per match away than at home. Rangers have created more chances at Ibrox, while Hearts have combined a strong home scoring record with a much less secure away defence. Aberdeen's attack also changes markedly by venue.

These patterns matter because actual goals do not always move in step with expected goals (xG). xG estimates the quality of chances created, while expected goals against (xGA) describes the quality of opportunities allowed. Examining both helps distinguish attacking production from defensive resistance.

The SmartMatchData snapshot covers **69 completed Scottish Premiership 2026/27 matches**, all with xG and xGA for both teams. The latest recorded fixture was played on **1 November 2026 (UTC)**. Celtic and several other clubs have played twelve games, while some have played eleven. Home and away counts also differ, so per-match rates are essential. This is an early-season comparison, not a forecast.

Our existing Scottish Premiership team form analysis offers a complementary view of results and form.

Celtic: chance creation remains strong on the road

Celtic have created **14.31 xG in six home matches**, or **2.39 per game**, scoring fifteen goals. Their home defence has allowed **4.96 xGA**, approximately **0.83 per match**, and conceded five.

Across six away games, Celtic have generated **17.56 xG**, or **2.93 per match**, scoring twelve. Their away defence has allowed **6.60 xGA**, equivalent to **1.10 per game**, and conceded five.

The away attack has created more estimated chance quality despite scoring fewer actual goals. Celtic's expected-goal difference is **+9.35 at home** and **+10.96 away**, a strong positive balance in both settings.

Celtic's away defensive xGA is higher, but their stronger away chance creation more than compensates in the combined measure. The goals versus xG guide explains why actual scoring can diverge from chance-quality totals.

Rangers: home advantage is visible in attacking xG

Rangers have generated **14.10 xG in five home matches**, averaging **2.82 per game**, and scored ten. Their home defence has allowed **5.08 xGA**, approximately **1.02 per match**, with three goals conceded.

Their six away matches have produced **10.10 xG**, or **1.68 per game**, and nine goals. Away xGA stands at **7.09**, or **1.18 per match**, with six conceded.

The attacking difference is substantial: Rangers create around **1.14 more xG per home match**. Their expected-goal difference is **+9.02 at home** and **+3.01 away**. That translates to approximately **+1.80 versus +0.50 per game**.

Rangers' home attack is the clearest driver of their venue advantage in the covered fixtures. Five home games, however, are too few to treat that rate as fixed.

Hearts: strong at home, vulnerable away

Heart of Midlothian have scored **fifteen goals in five home games**, creating **10.78 xG**, or **2.16 per match**. They have allowed **5.09 xGA**, or **1.02 per game**, and conceded four.

Across six away matches, Hearts have created **7.92 xG**, approximately **1.32 per game**, and scored nine. Their away defence has allowed **12.06 xGA**, or **2.01 per match**, with thirteen goals conceded.

Hearts' expected-goal difference shifts from **+5.69 at home** to **−4.14 away**. The attacking rate drops, but the defensive change is particularly important: away opponents have generated nearly twice as much xG per match as home opponents.

The home goals total exceeds the home xG estimate, while the away goals conceded are close to the away xGA total. Both figures warrant attention without assuming the same pattern will continue.

Aberdeen: home chances, away defensive pressure

Aberdeen have generated **9.15 xG in six home games**, or **1.53 per match**, but scored only five. Their home defence has allowed **7.27 xGA**, or **1.21 per game**, and conceded five.

Away, Aberdeen have created **4.60 xG in five matches**, just **0.92 per game**, and scored seven. Their away defence has allowed **8.39 xGA**, or **1.68 per match**, with nine goals conceded.

The expected-goal difference changes from **+1.88 at home** to **−3.79 away**. Aberdeen's away scoring has exceeded the xG estimate despite the lower chance-creation rate. The underlying balance remains weaker away because of both attacking and defensive shifts.

Motherwell and Kilmarnock: defensive contrasts

Motherwell have created **8.43 xG in six home fixtures**, or **1.41 per game**, and allowed **5.65 xGA**, approximately **0.94**. Their home expected-goal difference is **+2.78**, although they have scored only four and conceded eight.

Away, Motherwell have generated **10.02 xG in six games**, or **1.67 per match**, and allowed **12.61 xGA**, or **2.10**. Their away expected-goal difference is **−2.59**. Their attacking rate improves on the road, but the defensive xGA rises sharply.

Kilmarnock have allowed **15.55 xGA in six home matches**, or **2.59 per game**, conceding fifteen. Their away defence has allowed **9.58 xGA**, approximately **1.60 per game**, conceding thirteen.

Kilmarnock's home xG difference is **−8.06**, compared with **−0.72 away**. In their case, the defensive underlying numbers have been substantially worse at home, contrary to the usual assumption that familiar surroundings necessarily mean better control.

Dundee and St Johnstone: attacks change more than the final score suggests

Dundee FC have created **10.41 xG in six home matches**, or **1.74 per game**, and **5.51 across five away**, or **1.10**. Their home defence has allowed **9.31 xGA**, or **1.55 per match**, compared with **9.03 away**, or **1.81**.

St. Johnstone have created **8.42 xG at home in six games**, or **1.40 per match**, while allowing **8.25 xGA**, or **1.38**. Away they have generated **5.79 xG**, or **0.97 per game**, and allowed **14.21 xGA**, approximately **2.37 per match**.

St. Johnstone's expected-goal difference moves from **+0.17 at home** to **−8.42 away**. That combines weaker away chance creation with considerably more dangerous chances conceded.

What the early venue data can establish

These figures come from eleven or twelve league games per club, with only five or six matches at most individual venues. Opponent strength, penalties, red cards and game states can affect xG and xGA. The comparisons are not adjusted for those factors, and a single unusual fixture can still move the averages.

The home and away statistics guide explains how to compare unequal match counts. The xG versus xGA guide and small-sample statistics guide provide further context.

Celtic's attack has produced high xG in both settings, especially away. Rangers' attacking advantage is much stronger at home. Hearts' defensive xGA deteriorates on the road, Aberdeen create fewer chances away, and Kilmarnock's defensive numbers have actually been worse at home.

Those are findings from **69 completed league matches**, not predictions of the next round. Explore the Scottish Premiership league page, Statistics and Predictions for match records and independently generated forecasts.