Celtic lead on points and chance creation
Celtic have made the strongest start to the Scottish Premiership 2026/27 season. After nine matches, they have 24 points from eight wins and one defeat. They have scored 23 goals and conceded only five, giving them the best goal difference in the league.
Their underlying numbers support the results. Celtic have created 26.40 expected goals (xG) and allowed 8.51 expected goals against (xGA). That gives them a positive xG difference of 17.89, well ahead of the other clubs in the early table.
Rangers are four points behind, while Hearts sit third. But the league table is only part of the story. The difference between points, goals and xG helps explain which teams are creating the strongest chances and where recent results may hide weaknesses.
SmartMatchData has full-quality xG data for all 54 completed Scottish Premiership matches through 18 October. Each of the 12 teams has played nine games, so the comparison uses the same number of fixtures for every club.
Scottish Premiership form table: the leading teams
Celtic lead with 24 points, followed by Rangers on 20 and Hearts on 16. Dundee FC are fourth with 14 points, while Dundee United and St. Johnstone have 12 each.
The xG difference gives a second view of the standings. Celtic are far ahead at +17.89. Rangers have a positive difference of +7.51, and Hearts are at +2.28. Dundee FC, despite sitting fourth, have a negative xG difference of 2.47 goals, with 12.24 xG and 14.71 xGA.
A positive xG difference means a team has created chances worth more goals than it has allowed. It does not guarantee wins. A team still needs to finish its chances, defend key moments and manage the match.
Celtic's attack has set the standard
Celtic have scored 23 goals in nine matches, an average of 2.56 per game. Their 26.40 xG is even higher, at 2.93 per match. The figures show that their attacking record has been backed by a steady supply of high-quality chances.
Their most recent match was a 7-1 home win against Hearts on 18 October. It came after a 2-0 away win against Motherwell. Those results helped Celtic recover from their only league defeat so far, a 1-0 home loss to Rangers on 20 September.
Celtic have also been solid in defence. Their five goals conceded and 8.51 xGA are both strong early figures. The xGA total is higher than the number of goals actually allowed, which shows that opponents have created more chance quality than the final goals-against record alone suggests.
Nine matches are not enough to declare the title race over, but Celtic have the clearest advantage in both results and chance creation.
Rangers are close on points, with a smaller xG advantage
Rangers have taken 20 points from nine matches, winning six, drawing two and losing once. They have scored 13 goals and conceded seven. Their 17.43 xG and 9.92 xGA produce a positive xG difference of 7.51.
Those numbers are good, but they are some distance behind Celtic's attacking output. Rangers have scored ten fewer goals and created 8.97 fewer xG over the same nine-game period.
The head-to-head result still matters. Rangers beat Celtic 1-0 away on 20 September. That win shows why season averages cannot decide individual matches. A team can be behind in overall chance creation and still perform well enough to win a particular fixture.
Rangers' recent results include 1-0 wins against Motherwell and St. Mirren, a 3-1 victory over Kilmarnock and a 2-2 draw away to Dundee FC. Their form has been consistent, even without Celtic's high scoring.
Hearts are strong at home but less convincing away
Hearts have 16 points from five wins, one draw and three defeats. Their attacking record is lively, with 20 goals scored, but they have also conceded 15.
The home-away split is especially striking. Hearts have collected 12 points from four home matches, winning all four. Away from home, they have taken only four points from five games.
Their recent results show both sides of that contrast. Hearts beat St. Mirren 5-0 at home on 10 October, then lost 7-1 away to Celtic eight days later. That heavy defeat has a large effect on their goals-against record after only nine games.
Hearts' xG of 15.97 and xGA of 13.69 leave a modest positive difference of 2.28. Their 16 points and 20 goals are encouraging, but the underlying numbers are less dominant than Celtic's or Rangers'.
Dundee FC are collecting points despite a negative xG difference
Dundee FC have 14 points and sit fourth after nine games. They have scored 13 goals and conceded ten, giving them a positive actual goal difference of three.
Their expected-goals numbers tell a different story. Dundee have created 12.24 xG and allowed 14.71 xGA, a negative difference of 2.47. That means their opponents have created chances of higher estimated quality across the nine games.
Dundee have still taken useful results. They beat Motherwell 2-1 and Falkirk 2-1 before drawing 2-2 at home with Rangers. Those matches show how a team can collect points even when its overall chance-quality balance is not as strong.
A negative xG difference is not proof that Dundee's position is undeserved. The points are real. It is simply a reason to look more closely at whether the current results can be maintained.
The rest of the league has room to improve
Dundee United and St. Johnstone are level on 12 points. Dundee United have a positive xG difference of 1.52, while St. Johnstone are slightly negative at −1.64.
Aberdeen have 11 points and an xG difference of −2.58. Hibernian, at the bottom with seven points, are an interesting case: they have created 14.36 xG and allowed 13.30 xGA, giving them a small positive xG difference despite only two wins.
Hibernian's results show that a positive chance-quality balance does not automatically lead to points. They have scored nine goals from 14.36 xG and lost six of their nine games. That gap may change, but it should not be treated as a promise of better results.
Kilmarnock have the highest xGA in the league at 20.14 and have conceded 20 goals. Their defensive record is a clearer concern in both actual and expected terms.
Who is performing best in Scotland?
Celtic are the clear early leaders. They have the most points, the most goals and the strongest xG difference. Rangers remain close enough to keep the title race competitive, but their underlying attacking numbers are lower.
Hearts have been excellent at home but have struggled more away. Dundee FC are earning points with a negative xG difference, while Hibernian have a slightly positive xG balance that has not translated into strong results.
The most useful conclusion is not that xG predicts the final table. It is that points and expected goals answer different questions. Points show what teams have achieved. xG and xGA help explain the quality of chances behind those results.
For current standings and results, visit the Scottish Premiership statistics page. You can also explore team profiles, learn How to Read Football Form Statistics and read xG vs xGA Explained.
Data and methodology
This analysis uses SmartMatchData's Scottish Premiership 2026/27 database through 18 October 2026. It contains 54 completed matches, with full-quality xG and xGA for both teams in all 54. Each of the 12 clubs has played nine league matches. Points are calculated as three for a win and one for a draw. xG difference is xG minus xGA. Home and away records use the completed matches in each setting. Figures are rounded to two decimals. xG measures estimated chance quality, not guaranteed goals. These findings describe an early-season sample rather than predict the final standings.