Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: Spurs seek to build on their Chelsea win
Tottenham Hotspur welcome Crystal Palace on Saturday, 31 October 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 17:30 UTC. Spurs arrive after an impressive 2-0 away win against Chelsea, while Palace have lost their last two league games without scoring. The recent results point towards the hosts, but SmartMatchData's locked prediction still gives the visitors a meaningful chance.
Tottenham have collected eight points from their last five Premier League matches. Palace have four. That difference reflects contrasting recent momentum, although neither team's five-game record is flawless. Tottenham's ability to turn a promising performance into another win will be tested against a Palace side looking for a response.
Tottenham's recent Premier League form
Tottenham's last five league fixtures produced two wins, two draws and one defeat. They scored eight goals and conceded five. The 2-0 victory at Chelsea on 24 October followed a 3-1 home win against Coventry City, giving Spurs consecutive league wins ahead of this match.
Before those victories, Tottenham drew 1-1 at Manchester United, lost 3-2 at home to Aston Villa and drew 0-0 with Everton. The sequence shows improvement, but also why it is too early to treat Spurs as an automatic home winner. Their latest performances have been more productive in attack, yet the broader five-game sample includes two home fixtures without a victory.
Eight goals scored across five matches indicate a reasonable attacking return. Five conceded suggests a defence that has been competitive rather than consistently dominant. Against Palace, Tottenham will aim to carry their recent attacking momentum into another home game.
Crystal Palace's form: two difficult defeats
Crystal Palace have taken four points from their last five Premier League games, with one win, one draw and three defeats. They scored five goals and conceded 11. The latest two results are particularly concerning: a 2-0 home defeat against Newcastle United and a 5-0 away loss to Brighton & Hove Albion.
Palace's previous 3-1 win against Nottingham Forest shows that the team can still produce an effective attacking display. A goalless draw away to Leeds United also offers evidence that Palace can keep a game tight. However, the defeats to Newcastle, Brighton and Ipswich Town have left their recent defensive record under pressure.
Conceding 11 goals in five matches is a clear concern before facing Tottenham. Palace need to be more secure without the ball, but the results alone cannot establish what tactical changes or starting lineup they will use on Saturday.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: last five league games compared
Tottenham lead on points, wins and goal difference. Spurs scored eight and conceded five, while Palace scored five and conceded 11. Tottenham's goal difference across the sample is plus three; Palace's is minus six.
The form gap is substantial, but five matches remain a small sample. Recent scores show what happened, not necessarily the quality of every chance. Expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) can add context, but Palace's xG coverage is incomplete for this five-match window. Rather than invent a complete comparison, this preview uses verified results and a separately recorded model forecast. Learn more in Expected Goals Explained.
SmartMatchData AI prediction: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
SmartMatchData's v1.1 model locked its forecast on 29 October 2026, before kick-off. The model assigns **Tottenham a 51.2% chance of winning**, **a draw 26.3%** and **Crystal Palace a 22.5% chance of winning**.
Tottenham are the clearest favourite of the two sides, but a 51.2% home-win probability is not a guarantee. The combined chance of a draw or Palace victory is 48.8%. That is substantial uncertainty even when the home team has the strongest individual outcome.
For the goals markets, the model estimates **Over 2.5 goals at 51.1%** and **both teams to score (BTTS Yes) at 53.6%**. Both figures are close to an even split. Palace's recent defensive struggles might suggest an open game, but the model does not support a confident claim that three or more goals are inevitable.
These figures are probabilities for different markets. The 1X2 outcomes form one distribution; Over 2.5 and BTTS are separate estimates and should not be added to it.
What could decide the match?
Tottenham's two latest victories offer the most obvious positive signal. Spurs scored five goals and conceded one across those two matches, including a clean sheet at Chelsea. Maintaining that level of defensive concentration could be important against a Palace team that has recently struggled to score.
Palace's first task may be to prevent another early defensive setback. Their 5-0 loss at Brighton demonstrates the risk of a match getting away from them, but one heavy defeat should not be treated as proof that a repeat is likely. Their win over Nottingham Forest also shows they are capable of scoring multiple goals.
Tottenham's home advantage and stronger recent results make them a reasonable favourite. Palace's route to a positive result may depend on keeping the contest close and making better use of limited chances. These are possible match dynamics, not confirmed tactical plans or predictions of individual events.
Final Tottenham vs Crystal Palace prediction
The recent-form assessment and the locked model both favour Tottenham. Spurs have collected twice as many points as Palace across the last five league fixtures and arrive on consecutive wins. Palace have lost their last two without scoring, making a quick response important.
**SmartMatchData's locked 1X2 prediction is Tottenham 51.2%, draw 26.3% and Crystal Palace 22.5%.** Over 2.5 stands at 51.1%, with BTTS Yes at 53.6%. The numbers suggest a Tottenham edge, not certainty about the result or the number of goals.
For other weekend fixtures, explore our Premier League predictions for 31 October and 1 November, the Manchester City vs Brighton prediction and Premier League statistics.
Data and methodology
Form, goals and points refer to the five most recent completed Premier League matches for each team through 29 October 2026. SmartMatchData's separate v1.1 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS estimates were locked on 29 October before kick-off. Incomplete xG data, unconfirmed lineups, unverified injuries and exact-score guesses have not been included.