Inter led the attack, but the defensive race was tighter

Inter scored 89 goals in the 2025/26 Serie A season from chances worth 71.28 expected goals. Juventus, by contrast, scored 61 from 67.77 xG. The teams were separated by only 3.51 xG in the quality of chances they created, but by 28 actual goals. That gap is a compelling reason to look beyond the scoreboard when comparing attacks.

The season's defensive numbers tell a different story. Juventus allowed just 32.55 expected goals against (xGA), the lowest total in the league. Inter followed closely at 33.88. And Como, which ranked third for attacking xG, was also among the strongest defensive sides. SmartMatchData's complete 380-match dataset makes those comparisons possible across a consistent 38-game sample for all 20 teams.

Inter's goals outpaced its expected goals

Inter led Serie A with 71.28 xG, ahead of Juventus on 67.77 and Como on 61.97. Milan followed at 58.89, with Atalanta on 57.66 and Roma on 55.10. These totals estimate the combined scoring likelihood of each team's shots across the season; they are not alternative goal counts.

Inter finished with 89 actual goals, 17.72 above its xG. Juventus's 61 goals were 6.77 below its xG. Milan scored 53 from 58.89 xG, while Atalanta scored 51 from 57.66. Those differences are worth investigating, but they cannot on their own tell us how much came from finishing skill, shot placement, goalkeeping or natural variation. The xG model measures the estimated quality of chances before the final outcome is known.

Juventus edged Como and Inter on xGA

Juventus's 32.55 xGA was the lowest defensive total in Serie A. Como was second on 33.77 and Inter third on 33.88. Napoli recorded 36.94, Roma 39.50 and Atalanta 42.59. The narrow gaps among the top three are important: only 1.33 xGA separated Juventus and Inter across 38 matches.

Actual goals conceded add another layer. Juventus allowed 34 goals, Inter 35 and Como 29. Como therefore conceded fewer actual goals than either club despite having a slightly higher xGA than Juventus. That is not a contradiction: goals are results, while xGA measures the estimated quality of opponents' attempts.

Como's third-place xG difference stands out

Subtract xGA from xG and Como's season looks even more impressive. Inter led the league on +37.40 xG difference, with Juventus close behind at +35.22. Como was third on +28.20, comfortably ahead of Roma (+15.60), Atalanta (+15.07) and Napoli (+14.88).

Como's 61.97 xG and 33.77 xGA point to a team that combined chance creation with effective chance prevention. Its 65 actual goals scored and 29 conceded provide further context, but xG difference should not be mistaken for points earned, a final league position or a guarantee of future performance.

Home and away totals tell a more modest story

Across all 380 matches, designated home teams scored 485 goals and generated 517.70 xG. Away teams scored 437 goals from 431.57 xG. Home sides held an advantage in both metrics, although the gap in actual goals was smaller than the gap in xG. This season-wide pattern does not establish why the difference occurred or how it applies to any single fixture.

The Home vs Away Football Statistics guide explains why opponent strength, match context and sample size matter when interpreting venue splits.

Como was one of the season's most interesting cases. Our Como home and away analysis looks at how the club won ten matches in each setting despite a large difference in attacking xG.

What the dataset includes

This analysis uses SmartMatchData's stored Serie A 2025/26 records from August 23, 2025 through May 24, 2026. All 380 matches are finished, with complete final scores and full-quality xG for both teams. There are no administrative results or neutral-venue fixtures in the sample, and each of the 20 clubs appears in 38 matches. Team xG adds its own estimated shot quality across home and away games; xGA adds the corresponding estimates for opponents' shots. Figures are rounded to two decimal places.

Different xG providers may value the same chances differently, so comparisons across sources require care. These numbers are analytical context, not a replacement for the actual results. Explore the Serie A page for league information, or read xG vs xGA Explained to understand the metrics behind this comparison.