Both sides seek a response to recent defeats
Querétaro host Monterrey in Liga MX on 14 November 2026, with kickoff listed for 23:00 UTC. The two clubs arrive with very different recent scoring records but share a need for more consistent results. The comparison below uses each side's five latest completed league games available through 9 November, with no assumptions about subsequent lineup changes.
Querétaro: five defeats and defensive pressure
Querétaro lost each of their five most recent completed league fixtures, scoring three goals and conceding 15. The run includes a 0–2 home defeat to Puebla on 9 November, a 1–3 defeat at Juárez and a 1–3 home loss to Cruz Azul. Their 0–5 defeat at Santos Laguna on 17 October was particularly difficult: Santos generated 4.08 xG, while Querétaro produced 1.52.
The 1–3 defeat at Juárez illustrates a different issue. Querétaro generated 2.69 xG to Juárez's 1.42, yet lost by two goals. The chance-quality balance was much better than the scoreline suggests, although that single game cannot erase the wider defensive record. The goals versus xG guide explains why finishing and chance creation should be assessed separately.
Monterrey: results fluctuate despite chances created
Monterrey's latest five completed league matches produced two wins, one draw and two defeats, with nine goals scored and ten conceded. They lost 4–0 at Toluca on 8 November, creating only 0.37 xG against Toluca's 1.04. That unusually large difference between the scoreline and xG illustrates the volatility of finishing and match events.
The 3–3 home draw with Tijuana was also unusual: Monterrey generated 2.53 xG while Tijuana produced 0.72. Against Guadalajara, Monterrey lost 1–0 despite recording 1.85 xG. By contrast, their 4–1 away victory at Puebla came with 1.99 xG for Monterrey against 1.45 for Puebla. Recent scorelines have therefore been more variable than the underlying attacking opportunities alone.
Locked SmartMatchData probabilities
The forecast locked on 7 November gives Querétaro a 33.3% home-win probability, a 25.8% draw probability and Monterrey a 40.9% away-win probability. The model estimates 58.6% for Over 2.5 goals and 61.8% for both teams scoring. Monterrey have the largest individual 1X2 probability, but are not a certainty or even an above-50% away-win selection.
Read our prediction probability guide for context on interpreting model outputs, and the home-away statistics guide for why venue-specific samples matter.
Key statistical question
Querétaro need to limit the chances they concede without abandoning the attacking opportunities they have created in selected defeats. Monterrey need to convert more of their promising attacking spells into stable results while avoiding another defensive collapse. The locked model and the five-match statistics are dated snapshots; they should not be silently changed to fit subsequent events.