Newcastle United vs Everton: a close Premier League forecast
Newcastle United host Everton on Saturday, 31 October 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 15:00 UTC. Newcastle arrive after a 2-0 away win against Crystal Palace, while Everton are looking to recover from a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal. Newcastle have collected seven points from their last five Premier League matches, one more than Everton. That small difference makes this a difficult contest to separate on recent results alone.
SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 forecast gives Newcastle the smallest of home advantages. Everton's away-win probability is almost as high, and the draw remains a substantial possibility. This is a match where a narrow numerical edge should not be mistaken for a confident prediction.
Newcastle United's recent Premier League form
Newcastle have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five league fixtures. They scored six goals and conceded nine, collecting seven points. Their most recent result was a 2-0 away victory over Crystal Palace on 25 October, following a 0-0 home draw with Aston Villa.
Before those results, Newcastle lost 4-1 at Coventry City, beat Hull City 2-1 at home and suffered another 4-1 away defeat against Leeds United. The two heavy losses account for eight of the nine goals conceded across the five-match period. That concentration matters: the defensive record looks poor overall, but Newcastle have kept clean sheets in their two most recent matches.
The win at Palace gives the hosts momentum, yet the five-game sample remains uneven. Newcastle have shown that they can respond after difficult results, but they have also struggled badly in some away fixtures. Everton will test whether their recent defensive improvement can continue at home.
Everton's recent form: resilient but short of goals
Everton have taken six points from their last five league matches, with one win, three draws and one defeat. They scored three goals and conceded four. Their latest match was a 2-0 defeat away to Arsenal on 24 October, preceded by a 0-0 home draw against Chelsea.
Everton drew 2-2 away at Hull City, beat Ipswich Town 1-0 at home and held Tottenham Hotspur to a 0-0 draw away from home. Those results show a side that has often stayed competitive without scoring freely. Three goals across five matches are a limited attacking return, but four conceded and three clean sheets indicate relatively steady defending.
Everton's three draws also help explain why the away side cannot be dismissed. They have avoided defeat in four of their last five fixtures and have already taken a point away to Tottenham. The challenge at Newcastle is to create enough chances to turn another close performance into a victory.
Newcastle vs Everton: last five league matches compared
Newcastle have seven points from their last five games, compared with Everton's six. Newcastle have two wins, one draw and two defeats; Everton have one win, three draws and one defeat. Newcastle have scored six goals to Everton's three, but have conceded nine to Everton's four.
The numbers reveal contrasting profiles. Newcastle have been more productive in attack but less consistent defensively, while Everton have limited opponents without often scoring enough to win. Newcastle have kept two clean sheets and Everton three in the sample. Newcastle's two heavy away defeats significantly increase their goals-against total.
These figures come from completed league results, not estimated chance quality. Expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) can provide additional context, but the recent data are not complete enough for a like-for-like five-match comparison. See Expected Goals Explained for how those metrics should be interpreted.
SmartMatchData AI prediction: Newcastle United vs Everton
SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 forecast, recorded on 29 October 2026 before kick-off, gives **Newcastle United a 37.4% chance of winning**, **a draw 27.5%** and **Everton a 35.1% chance of winning**. Newcastle's advantage over Everton is just 2.3 percentage points after rounding.
The model also estimates **Over 2.5 goals at 52.7%** and **both teams to score (BTTS Yes) at 57.5%**. Those probabilities lean slightly towards goals, but Everton's recent low-scoring results and clean sheets are reasons not to overstate the case for an open match.
The three 1X2 probabilities represent mutually exclusive results. Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes are separate market estimates, not values to add to the 1X2 total. The forecast is an assessment of uncertainty, not a guarantee of a home win or any particular scoreline.
What could decide Newcastle vs Everton?
Newcastle's last two clean sheets suggest they have recently become harder to break down. If that continues, Everton may find it difficult to score, given their total of three goals across five league matches. Newcastle's six goals in the same period provide a stronger attacking baseline, although much of that scoring came in individual wins.
Everton's defensive consistency offers a route to a positive result. They have kept clean sheets against Chelsea, Ipswich and Tottenham in their recent run. Their ability to limit chances could keep the match close, especially if Newcastle cannot turn possession into clear opportunities.
An early goal could change the balance. If Newcastle score first, Everton may need to take more risks than they have in recent draws. If Everton frustrate the hosts, the draw could become increasingly relevant. These are possible match scenarios, not confirmed tactical plans or predictions of individual events.
Final Newcastle United vs Everton prediction
Recent points totals barely separate the teams, and the locked model is similarly close. Newcastle have the slightly higher win probability and the better recent goals-scored total. Everton have conceded fewer goals and drawn more often. Both sides have a plausible path to a result.
**SmartMatchData's locked 1X2 probabilities are Newcastle 37.4%, draw 27.5% and Everton 35.1%.** Over 2.5 stands at 52.7%, while BTTS Yes is 57.5%. This is a finely balanced fixture, not a confident home-win selection.
For more previews, see the Premier League predictions for 31 October and 1 November, the Bournemouth vs Leeds United prediction and Premier League statistics.
Data and methodology
Recent form refers to each team's five most recent completed Premier League fixtures through 29 October 2026. SmartMatchData's separate 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS estimates come from its locked v1.1 model forecast recorded on 29 October before kick-off. Incomplete xG samples, unverified injuries, unconfirmed lineups and invented exact-score predictions have been excluded.