Hull City vs Ipswich Town: can Hull turn draws into a win?

Hull City host Ipswich Town on Saturday, 31 October 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 15:00 UTC. Hull have not won any of their last five Premier League games, although three draws have kept them competitive. Ipswich have recorded two victories in the same period and arrive with a stronger recent points return. SmartMatchData's locked model nevertheless gives Hull a modest home advantage.

The difference between recent results and the model's forecast is worth examining. Hull have often remained in matches without finding a winner, while Ipswich have shown they can score and win away from home. Neither side has been consistently secure in defence, leaving room for different outcomes.

Hull City's recent Premier League form

Hull have taken three points from their last five league matches, with three draws and two defeats. They scored six goals and conceded eight. Their latest match was a 1-1 home draw against Brentford on 25 October, after a 1-0 defeat away to Fulham.

Before those results, Hull drew 2-2 at home with Everton, lost 2-1 away at Newcastle United and drew 2-2 away to Chelsea. Those results suggest that Hull can compete against a range of opponents, but they have not yet converted that competitiveness into a win in this five-game stretch.

Hull have scored in four of their last five fixtures. The bigger concern is their defensive record: eight goals conceded and no clean sheets in the sample. If they are to improve against Ipswich, limiting chances may matter as much as producing more goals.

Ipswich Town's recent form: two wins and a narrow loss at City

Ipswich have collected seven points from their last five Premier League fixtures, with two wins, one draw and two defeats. They scored eight goals and conceded eight. Their latest result was a 1-1 home draw against Nottingham Forest on 23 October, following a 3-2 away defeat at Manchester City.

Ipswich previously beat Fulham 2-1 at home, lost 1-0 away to Everton and won 3-2 away at Crystal Palace. Those results demonstrate a greater ability than Hull to turn attacking opportunities into victories. Ipswich have scored in four of their last five games and found the net twice or more in three of them.

The eight goals conceded are a reminder that Ipswich have also been vulnerable. Their away win at Crystal Palace shows what is possible, but the narrow defeat at Manchester City does not automatically mean they will reproduce that attacking performance against Hull.

Hull vs Ipswich: last five league matches compared

Ipswich lead Hull on points, seven to three, and wins, two to none. Ipswich have scored eight goals to Hull's six. Both teams have conceded eight goals across the five-game sample. Hull have drawn three times, while Ipswich have one draw.

Hull's repeated draws suggest they can keep matches close. Ipswich have taken more risks and recorded more wins, but their defensive totals are no better. That balance helps explain why a form-based assessment and a home-advantage model can point in different directions.

These figures come from completed Premier League results, not expected-goals estimates. Recent xG and xGA coverage is incomplete, so this preview does not invent five-match chance-quality averages. See Expected Goals Explained for a guide to those metrics.

SmartMatchData AI prediction: Hull City vs Ipswich Town

SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match forecast, recorded on 29 October 2026, gives **Hull City a 41.0% chance of winning**, **a draw 27.1%** and **Ipswich Town a 31.9% chance of winning**. Hull have the highest individual outcome probability, despite their weaker recent points return.

That does not make Hull a confident selection. The combined draw and Ipswich-win probability is 59.0%. Ipswich's recent two victories offer a strong reminder that the away side is capable of taking all three points. The model and the five-match form table answer different questions and should be considered together.

For goals, the model estimates **Over 2.5 at 53.9%** and **both teams to score (BTTS Yes) at 58.2%**. Both sides have conceded eight goals across their last five fixtures, while Hull have scored in four games and Ipswich in four. Those results provide context for the goals-market estimates, but neither probability guarantees a high-scoring match.

The home, draw and away percentages form a single 1X2 distribution. Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes are separate markets and should not be added to that distribution.

What could decide Hull City vs Ipswich Town?

Hull's ability to stay in games may be an asset, particularly at home. Draws against Chelsea, Everton and Brentford suggest they can find goals against different opponents. The challenge is to protect a lead or find the decisive goal, neither of which has happened often enough in their latest five matches.

Ipswich's two wins and eight goals offer a stronger recent attacking record. They have shown they can score multiple goals away from home, including three at Crystal Palace and two at Manchester City. If Hull concede as regularly as they have in the five-game sample, Ipswich could create opportunities.

An early Hull goal might allow the hosts to play with greater confidence, while an early Ipswich goal could test Hull's ability to respond. Those are possible match dynamics, not claims about confirmed tactics, starting lineups or future events.

Final Hull City vs Ipswich Town prediction

Ipswich have the better recent form, with seven points to Hull's three. Hull, however, have drawn three of their last five matches and retain a narrow home edge in SmartMatchData's locked model. The result remains uncertain, particularly given the teams' identical recent goals-conceded totals.

**SmartMatchData's 1X2 forecast is Hull City 41.0%, draw 27.1% and Ipswich Town 31.9%.** Over 2.5 goals stands at 53.9%, while BTTS Yes is 58.2%. These are pre-match probabilities, not a guaranteed winner or exact-score prediction.

For more fixtures, see the Premier League predictions for 31 October and 1 November, the Coventry City vs Sunderland prediction and Premier League statistics.

Data and methodology

Recent form uses the five most recent completed Premier League matches for each club through 29 October 2026. The separate 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS forecasts come from SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match model recorded on 29 October before kick-off. Incomplete xG samples, unverified injuries, unconfirmed lineups and invented exact-score predictions have been excluded.