Getafe vs Sevilla: match preview
Getafe host Sevilla on Sunday, 1 November 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 13:00 UTC. Both teams have had mixed results recently, but Sevilla arrive after a 2-0 win against Osasuna. Getafe suffered a heavy 4-0 defeat against Athletic Club in their latest league game.
SmartMatchData's locked AI model gives Sevilla a 42.8% chance of winning, Getafe a 28.7% chance and a draw 28.5%. Sevilla are the model's favourites, although the difference is not large enough to rule out a close match.
Getafe recent LaLiga form
Getafe have collected four points from their last five league matches. They have one win, one draw and three defeats, scoring two goals and conceding nine.
Their latest match was a 4-0 away defeat against Athletic Club on 25 October. Before that, Getafe drew 1-1 at home with Rayo Vallecano, lost 3-0 away to Barcelona, beat Málaga 1-0 at home and lost 1-0 away to Real Betis.
Getafe have scored in only two of these five matches. Their attack has been limited, and the heavy defeats against Athletic Club and Barcelona have damaged their defensive record. However, their last two home league games brought a win and a draw, so home advantage may still matter.
The hosts need to create more chances and avoid giving Sevilla space to score. A tighter performance would help them stay competitive.
Sevilla recent LaLiga form
Sevilla have taken seven points from their last five league games, with two wins, one draw and two defeats. They have scored eight goals and conceded ten.
Their latest result was a 2-0 home win against Osasuna on 26 October. Before that, Sevilla lost 4-1 away to Real Madrid, drew 3-3 away to Levante, lost 3-1 at home to Barcelona and won 1-0 away to Deportivo La Coruña.
Sevilla have scored in all five of these matches. Their attack has been more productive than Getafe's, but the defence has been inconsistent. They conceded four against Real Madrid and three each against Levante and Barcelona.
The clean sheet against Osasuna was a positive response. Sevilla will want to build on that performance and collect another win away from home.
Getafe vs Sevilla: recent form comparison
Getafe have one win, one draw, three defeats and four points from five league games. Sevilla have two wins, one draw, two defeats and seven points.
Getafe have scored two goals and conceded nine. Sevilla have scored eight and conceded ten. Both teams have kept one clean sheet in this period.
Sevilla's stronger attack is a clear advantage, but they have conceded slightly more goals than Getafe across these five games. Getafe's two recent home results were better than their away performances, which adds some uncertainty to the prediction.
Complete xG and xGA data are not available for every match in this sample, so this comparison uses verified results rather than incomplete expected-goals averages.
SmartMatchData AI prediction: Getafe vs Sevilla
SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match model gives **Getafe a 28.7% chance of winning**, **a draw 28.5%** and **Sevilla a 42.8% chance of winning**. Sevilla have the highest individual outcome probability, but both a home win and a draw remain realistic.
The model estimates **Over 2.5 goals at 47.2%**. This is slightly below an even chance. Sevilla's last few games have included plenty of goals, while Getafe have scored only twice in five matches. Those different attacking records make the total-goals forecast uncertain.
The model gives **both teams to score (BTTS Yes) a 52.7% probability**. Sevilla have scored in all five recent league matches, but Getafe have failed to score in three. Sevilla have also conceded in three of their last five games. The BTTS probability is close to 50%, so neither outcome is strongly favoured.
The three 1X2 percentages represent separate match results. Over 2.5 and BTTS are different forecasts and should not be added to the match-result probabilities.
What could decide the match?
Getafe need a better attacking performance. They have scored just two goals in five games, making it difficult to recover if they fall behind. Their recent home win against Málaga and draw with Rayo Vallecano show that they can compete on their own ground.
Sevilla have scored eight goals during the same period and may create more chances. However, conceding ten goals in five games is a concern. If they defend as well as they did against Osasuna, their chances of winning should improve.
The first goal could be important. Sevilla may be able to use their stronger recent scoring form to take control. Getafe could make the match difficult if they keep it level. These are possible scenarios, not confirmed tactical plans or lineups.
Final Getafe vs Sevilla prediction
Sevilla enter with better recent results and a much stronger attacking record. They have scored eight goals in five matches, compared with Getafe's two. Getafe have struggled for points, although their last two home results offer some encouragement.
**The locked AI forecast is Getafe 28.7%, draw 28.5% and Sevilla 42.8%.** Over 2.5 goals stands at 47.2%, while BTTS Yes is 52.7%. Sevilla to win is the model's most likely individual result, but the match remains open.
Data and methodology
Recent form covers each team's five most recent completed LaLiga matches through 29 October 2026. Probabilities come from SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match model. Missing xG values, unconfirmed lineups and unverified injury claims have not been used.