Ajax's away goals and PSV's home attack tell different stories

Ajax have scored more goals away from home than in Amsterdam despite playing one fewer home fixture. PSV Eindhoven have created almost three expected goals per home match, while Feyenoord have maintained strong chance creation across both settings. FC Twente's defensive numbers, meanwhile, remain unusually tight regardless of venue.

Those are not interchangeable forms of home advantage. Actual goals measure the outcome; expected goals (xG) estimate the quality of scoring opportunities, and expected goals against (xGA) measure the chances a team allows. Comparing all three can reveal whether a venue split comes from attacking creation, defensive control or short-run finishing.

This analysis uses **99 completed Eredivisie 2026/27 matches**, all with home and away xG recorded in SmartMatchData. The latest match in the snapshot was played on **1 November 2026 (UTC)**. Each club has played eleven league matches, with five or six at each venue. The figures are descriptive, not adjusted for opponent strength.

Our existing Eredivisie attacking xG analysis explores league-wide attacking trends. Here the focus is specifically on venue.

Ajax: more goals away, but similar underlying chance creation

AFC Ajax have scored **12 goals in six home matches** and **18 in five away**. At first glance, that suggests a dramatically stronger attack on the road.

The xG figures tell a more measured story. Ajax have generated **12.92 xG at home**, or **2.15 per match**, and **12.57 away**, or **2.51 per match**. The away chance-creation rate is higher, but the gap is far smaller than the actual goals-per-game difference.

Defensively, Ajax have allowed **8.67 xGA at home**, approximately **1.45 per game**, while conceding nine goals. Their away defence has allowed **5.50 xGA**, or **1.10 per match**, with four goals conceded.

The expected-goal difference is **+4.25 at home** and **+7.07 away**. On a per-game basis, that is approximately **+0.71** versus **+1.41**. Ajax's underlying balance has been stronger away in this early sample, though five away fixtures are not enough to establish a permanent preference for playing on the road.

PSV: a formidable home attack

PSV Eindhoven have generated **17.55 xG in six home matches**, averaging **2.93 per game**. They have scored **21 home goals** while allowing **8.35 xGA**, or **1.39 per match**, and conceding five.

Across five away games, PSV have generated **10.44 xG**, or **2.09 per match**, and scored fourteen goals. Their away xGA is **6.59**, approximately **1.32 per game**, with eight actual goals conceded.

PSV's defensive chance-prevention rate is relatively similar across venues. The main underlying difference is attacking: their home xG rate is about **0.84 higher per match**.

Their expected-goal difference remains positive in both settings, **+9.20 at home** and **+3.85 away**. That supports a picture of a strong attack in either environment, with particularly high chance creation at home.

Feyenoord: strong attacks on both sides of the split

Feyenoord have created **13.42 xG in five home fixtures**, or **2.68 per match**, and scored twelve goals. They have allowed only **4.46 xGA**, approximately **0.89 per game**, while conceding five.

Away from home, Feyenoord have generated **15.56 xG in six matches**, or **2.59 per game**, and scored **21 goals**. Their away defence has allowed **6.35 xGA**, or **1.06 per match**, and conceded seven.

The attacking xG rates are close. The much larger away goals total partly reflects one extra match and the difference between goals scored and estimated chance quality.

Feyenoord's expected-goal difference is **+8.96 at home** and **+9.21 away**. Per game, the home figure is slightly stronger, at **+1.79 versus +1.54**. Their chance-quality balance has been positive and relatively stable across venues.

The goals-versus-xG guide explains why actual scoring can vary more than underlying chance creation.

FC Twente: away scoring rises without defensive collapse

FC Twente have generated **11.80 xG in five home matches**, or **2.36 per game**, and scored ten goals. Their home defence has allowed **4.11 xGA**, approximately **0.82 per match**, and conceded five.

Their six away games have produced **14.89 xG**, or **2.48 per match**, with **18 goals scored**. Twente have allowed **4.54 away xGA**, just **0.76 per game**, and conceded five goals.

Unlike many teams, Twente's away defensive xGA rate is slightly lower than its home rate. Their expected-goal difference is **+7.69 at home** and **+10.35 away**, equivalent to **+1.54 and +1.73 per game**.

The overall profile is unusually consistent: Twente have created more than two expected goals per match and allowed less than one in both settings. That is a stronger statement than simply noting their away scoring total.

AZ Alkmaar: a smaller attacking gap

AZ Alkmaar have created **11.13 xG in five home matches**, or **2.23 per game**, and scored nine goals. Their home defence has allowed **5.84 xGA**, approximately **1.17 per match**.

Across six away fixtures, AZ have generated **11.22 xG**, or **1.87 per match**, and also scored nine goals. Away xGA is **7.09**, approximately **1.18 per game**.

AZ's defensive xGA rate is almost identical across venues, while attacking chance creation has been somewhat higher at home. The expected-goal difference is **+5.29 at home** and **+4.13 away**, a positive balance in both settings.

This is a useful counterpoint to the dramatic scoring splits elsewhere in the league: some venue effects are modest rather than transformative.

Excelsior and Telstar: different defensive problems

Excelsior have allowed **13.61 xGA in five home matches**, or **2.72 per game**, and conceded **19 goals**. Their away defence has allowed **8.91 xGA in six games**, approximately **1.49 per match**, with nine actual goals conceded.

Their attack has also generated more xG away: **8.15 across six fixtures**, or **1.36 per game**, compared with **4.10 across five home**, or **0.82**. Excelsior's home chance balance has been particularly weak.

SC Telstar present a different picture. They have created **11.35 xG in six home matches**, or **1.89 per game**, but only **4.04 xG in five away**, or **0.81**. Their defence has allowed **12.13 xGA at home**, approximately **2.02 per match**, and **9.79 away**, or **1.96**.

Telstar's defensive chance-prevention rate is similarly high in both settings. The more pronounced venue change is attacking production, which drops sharply on the road.

Willem II and Utrecht: caution from the xGA column

Willem II Tilburg have allowed **9.16 xGA in five home matches**, or **1.83 per game**, and conceded sixteen goals. Their six away fixtures have produced **15.95 xGA**, approximately **2.66 per match**, with **23 goals conceded**.

Their attack has generated **6.04 xG at home**, or **1.21 per game**, and **7.02 away**, or **1.17**. The attacking rate barely changes; the defensive rate worsens substantially away.

FC Utrecht have allowed **8.99 xGA in five home games**, approximately **1.80 per match**, and **11.07 across six away**, or **1.85**. Their defensive xGA rate is fairly similar across venues despite conceding fifteen home goals and sixteen away.

The contrast between Willem II and Utrecht shows why defensive outcomes must be evaluated alongside xGA. The xG versus xGA explainer provides the distinction.

Why the early sample matters

Eleven matches per club provide a useful initial view, but no side has more than six matches at either venue. Opponent quality, penalties, red cards and unusual scorelines can change xG averages significantly.

The current figures are not adjusted for schedule strength. Dividing totals by matches played is essential when comparing five home games with six away, but it does not make the opponents equivalent.

For a practical framework, see Home and Away Football Statistics and Small Sample Size in Football Statistics.

What the Eredivisie numbers reveal

Ajax's away goal total is eye-catching, but their xG suggests a more moderate attacking improvement on the road. PSV create substantially more attacking chance quality at home, while Feyenoord maintain strong chance balances across both venues. Twente's attacking and defensive xG rates are remarkably stable, and AZ's differences are comparatively modest.

Excelsior's home defence has allowed particularly high xGA, Telstar's away attack has generated little chance quality, and Willem II's away defensive numbers are concerning.

These conclusions describe **99 completed league fixtures**, not probabilities for the next round. Explore the Eredivisie league page, Statistics and Predictions for match data and separately generated model forecasts.