West Ham create the most chances, but Swansea have more points
West Ham have scored more goals and created more expected goals (xG) than any other Championship team after 11 matches in 2026/27. Their 30 goals have come from chances worth 23.75 xG, giving them the highest attacking xG total in the league.
Yet West Ham do not lead the points table. Swansea have collected 23 points, one more than West Ham and Middlesbrough. It is a useful reminder that a strong attack does not always produce the most points. Defending, draws and the timing of goals also shape a team's results.
SmartMatchData has full-quality xG data for all 132 completed Championship matches in the current season. Each of the 24 clubs has played 11 times, so the figures can be compared without adjusting for missing games.
Championship attacking xG: the leading teams
West Ham have produced 23.75 xG in 11 matches, or 2.16 per game. Middlesbrough follow with 21.75 xG (1.98 per game). Cardiff City have created 20.77 xG (1.89 per game), ahead of Millwall on 20.45 and Southampton on 20.24.
The goals totals tell a different story. West Ham have scored 30, Middlesbrough 22, Southampton 21, and Cardiff and Millwall 18 each. West Ham's goals-minus-xG gap is +6.25, while Middlesbrough are close to their expected total at +0.25. Cardiff have scored 2.77 fewer goals than their xG estimate.
A positive gap does not prove that a team has exceptional finishing skill. A few high-scoring games can have a large effect over 11 matches. xG is most useful when we read it alongside actual results and individual performances.
West Ham's attack has delivered at home and away
West Ham have scored 15 goals in five home games and another 15 in six away matches. Their home xG is 13.08, compared with 10.67 on the road. They have therefore created 2.62 xG per home match and 1.78 per away match.
The results include a 6-0 home win against Wrexham and a 6-0 away victory over Lincoln City. West Ham recorded 2.96 xG against Wrexham and 3.21 against Lincoln. Both games contributed heavily to their positive goals-minus-xG gap.
They also beat Derby County 3-0, creating 3.79 xG, and won 4-2 against Wolverhampton with 2.05 xG. These matches show that West Ham have created chances regularly, even though their goals have sometimes been well above the estimated chance quality.
West Ham have 22 points from 11 games. Their attack has been productive, but the points total also shows why scoring heavily is not the only measure of a successful start.
Middlesbrough's scoring is close to their xG
Middlesbrough have created 21.75 xG and scored 22 goals. The difference of just +0.25 is much smaller than West Ham's, but their points total is the same at 22.
Middlesbrough have scored 14 goals in six home matches and eight in five away games. Their xG totals are 11.94 at home and 9.81 away, suggesting that they have created dangerous chances in both settings.
Their results include a 4-3 home win over Norwich, a 3-2 away win against Stoke and a 2-2 home draw with Cardiff. The Cardiff match produced 2.76 xG for Middlesbrough, showing that they can create a high volume of chances even without winning.
Middlesbrough's early figures suggest a strong attack with a goals return close to the xG estimate. That is different from West Ham's larger finishing gap, but it is not necessarily better or worse.
Cardiff are creating chances without the same reward
Cardiff have created 20.77 xG, the third-highest total in the Championship sample, but scored only 18 goals. They have taken 11 points from 11 matches, well behind the leading teams.
Their results include a 5-1 home win against Watford, where they recorded 3.79 xG, and a 3-1 win over Charlton with 2.60 xG. But they have also had games where good chances did not lead to enough goals. Against Stoke, Cardiff recorded 3.60 xG in a 1-1 draw. They also lost 1-0 at Bolton despite creating 1.79 xG.
Cardiff's chance creation is encouraging, but xG does not award points. The team still needs to convert chances and defend well enough to turn attacking performances into wins.
Southampton and Millwall are also near the top
Southampton have scored 21 goals from 20.24 xG, a small positive difference of +0.76. They have 21 points and sit close to the leading clubs.
Their attack has been especially productive at home. Southampton have scored 16 goals in six home matches, compared with five in five away games. Their home xG is 12.56, while away xG is 7.68.
Millwall have created slightly more xG than Southampton, at 20.45, but scored only 18 goals. They have 15 points. Their results have varied, from a 4-0 win against Bolton to a 5-1 defeat at Southampton.
These comparisons show why chance creation and league position should be considered together. Southampton have collected more points than Millwall despite a slightly lower xG total.
Stoke and Swansea show why goals and points can mislead
Stoke City have scored 18 goals from just 9.87 xG, the largest positive goals-minus-xG gap in the league at +8.13. Their 19 points are a strong return, but their attacking xG total is among the lowest in the division.
That does not mean Stoke's goals are somehow less valuable. It means the chances they have taken were estimated to produce fewer goals on average. Whether that gap continues is an open question.
Swansea provide another contrast. They lead the points table with 23 points, despite scoring 16 goals from 17.51 xG. Their attack is not the league's most productive by either goals or expected goals, yet their overall results have been better than everyone else's so far.
Both teams show the limits of ranking clubs by one number. A full assessment needs results, chance creation and defensive performance together.
Which Championship team has the best attack?
After 11 matches, West Ham have the strongest claim based on attacking output. They lead the league in goals and xG, and they have created chances at home and away. Middlesbrough are the nearest challenger on xG, while Cardiff and Millwall have also produced a high volume of opportunities.
But the league table tells a wider story. Swansea have the most points, Southampton are close to the leaders, and Stoke have scored far more goals than their xG suggests.
These are early-season patterns, not final judgments. As the sample grows, the relationship between goals, xG and results will become clearer.
For the latest standings and match data, visit the Championship statistics page. You can also browse team profiles, read Expected Goals Explained and learn how to compare xG and xGA.
Data and methodology
This article uses SmartMatchData's Championship 2026/27 records through 20 October 2026. The dataset contains 132 completed matches, all with full-quality xG and xGA for both teams. Each of the 24 clubs has played 11 matches. Goals-minus-xG is calculated as actual goals scored minus expected goals across the same fixtures. Home and away xG averages divide the xG total by the number of matches played at each venue. Figures are rounded to two decimal places. xG estimates chance quality, not guaranteed goals, and may differ between providers. This is a descriptive analysis, not a prediction of future results.