The last five games tell a sharper story than the table alone
Palmeiras have generated 14.14 expected goals in their last five completed Brasileirão matches, allowing just 4.63. Flamengo have created 11.55 and conceded only 4.40 xGA across the same five-game window. Both clubs have also scored fourteen goals in those fixtures, but their attacking chance quality and defensive control differ.
Recent form is useful precisely because it can reveal changes that season-long averages smooth over. It is also easy to misuse. Five matches can include unusual opponents, red cards or exceptional finishing, so a short run should be considered alongside the full campaign.
SmartMatchData's current snapshot includes **338 completed Brasileirão Série A 2026 matches**, all with xG and xGA. The latest recorded fixture is dated **6 November 2026 (UTC)**. The last-five figures below use each team's five most recent completed league games in the database, not a shared calendar window. Clubs have played different numbers of league matches, so season averages are calculated per game.
For the broader competition picture, see our Brasileirão 2026 attacking and defensive xG analysis.
Palmeiras: the strongest five-game chance balance
Palmeiras have scored **fourteen goals** and conceded **two** in their latest five league fixtures. Their underlying numbers are similarly impressive: **14.14 xG** created against **4.63 xGA** allowed.
That is **2.83 xG per match**, **0.93 xGA per match** and a five-game expected-goal difference of **+9.51**. The high scoring total is closely aligned with the quality of chances generated, rather than depending on a large finishing surplus.
Across their **34 completed league matches**, Palmeiras have accumulated **48.89 xG**, approximately **1.44 per game**, and **32.30 xGA**, around **0.95 per match**. Their recent attacking xG rate is therefore almost twice their season average, while the defensive xGA rate is broadly similar.
The comparison suggests a marked recent rise in attacking chance creation. It does not establish that the new rate will continue against every opponent.
Flamengo: a strong run backed by defensive control
Flamengo's last five matches have also produced **fourteen goals**, with **four conceded**. They have generated **11.55 xG**, or **2.31 per match**, while allowing **4.40 xGA**, just **0.88 per game**.
Their five-game expected-goal difference is **+7.15**. The attacking return of fourteen goals exceeds the 11.55 xG estimate, but the underlying chance balance is positive even before considering finishing.
Across **34 completed league fixtures**, Flamengo have generated **60.14 xG**, approximately **1.77 per match**, and allowed **31.81 xGA**, or **0.94 per game**. Their last-five attacking rate is higher than the season rate, while the defensive xGA rate is slightly lower.
Palmeiras have generated more xG over their last five, but Flamengo's full-season attacking xG total remains higher. These are different questions: one measures the recent window, the other the accumulated campaign.
For additional context, see the Flamengo home and away xG analysis.
Cruzeiro: plenty of chances, but a less secure defence
Cruzeiro have scored **eleven goals** and conceded **eight** across their most recent five league games. They have generated **11.86 xG**, or **2.37 per match**, while allowing **7.71 xGA**, or **1.54 per game**.
Their recent expected-goal difference is **+4.15**, a healthy attacking balance but not as dominant as Palmeiras' or Flamengo's.
For the full **34-match season sample**, Cruzeiro have created **54.80 xG**, approximately **1.61 per game**, and allowed **43.56 xGA**, or **1.28 per match**. Their recent attacking xG rate is significantly above the season rate, but their recent defensive xGA rate is also higher.
This is why a strong five-game attack should not automatically be interpreted as across-the-board improvement. Cruzeiro have created more danger while also allowing opponents somewhat more chance quality.
Bragantino: recent scoring has improved, defensive xGA remains elevated
Red Bull Bragantino have scored **ten goals** and conceded **six** in their last five completed fixtures. They have generated **9.09 xG**, or **1.82 per match**, and allowed **10.00 xGA**, exactly **2.00 per game**.
Their recent expected-goal difference is **−0.91**, despite the positive actual goal difference of four. That contrast matters: Bragantino have scored more than their opponents, but their opponents have generated slightly more estimated chance quality.
Across **34 league games**, Bragantino have recorded **51.35 xG**, approximately **1.51 per match**, and **44.38 xGA**, around **1.31 per game**. Recent attacking chance creation has improved, but the increase in defensive xGA has been more pronounced.
A run of positive scorelines can therefore conceal a less comfortable underlying chance balance. The xG versus xGA guide explains the difference.
Bahia: defensive pressure has increased
Bahia's latest five matches have produced **seven goals scored** and **nine conceded**. Their attacking xG is **7.36**, or **1.47 per game**, while xGA reaches **11.99**, approximately **2.40 per match**.
That gives Bahia a recent expected-goal difference of **−4.63**. Their opponents have generated substantially more chance quality over the five-game run.
Across **34 completed league matches**, Bahia have accumulated **51.80 xG**, or **1.52 per match**, and **49.21 xGA**, around **1.45 per game**. Their recent attacking rate is close to the season average, but their defensive xGA rate is much higher.
The concern in this snapshot is therefore less about attacking creation than about the quality of chances allowed.
Vasco and São Paulo: outcomes and chance balance diverge
Vasco da Gama have scored **seven goals** and conceded **eight** in their latest five league matches. Their underlying figures are **5.86 xG** and **4.47 xGA**, giving them a positive expected-goal difference of **+1.39** despite a negative actual goal difference.
Across **33 completed matches**, Vasco have generated **49.85 xG**, or **1.51 per game**, and allowed **34.93 xGA**, or **1.06 per match**. Their last-five attack has produced only **1.17 xG per game**, below their season rate, while their defensive xGA rate has been slightly lower.
São Paulo have scored **six** and conceded **five** in their last five. They have created **7.44 xG** and allowed **5.33 xGA**, a positive difference of **+2.11**.
Their **34-match** season totals are **46.32 xG**, or **1.36 per game**, and **39.88 xGA**, approximately **1.17 per match**. São Paulo's recent attacking xG rate of **1.49 per game** is modestly higher than their season average, while recent defensive xGA of **1.07** is slightly lower.
Both examples show why goals alone can give a different impression from chance-quality trends.
What five-game form can and cannot predict
Recent form is not a standalone forecast. Five matches can be shaped by the quality of opponents, fixture location, penalties, red cards and game state. The last five fixtures for different clubs also cover different calendar dates, so they should not be read as perfectly synchronized periods.
A more reliable interpretation compares the short-run xG and xGA rates with season-long rates, then checks the next opponent and venue. The small-sample statistics guide explains why a sharp five-game change may not persist.
The Brasileirão home and away comparison adds another layer: a team can look strong overall while creating very different chances at home and away.
The current five-game picture
Palmeiras have the strongest recent expected-goal difference among the highlighted clubs, supported by very high attacking xG and limited xGA. Flamengo have also combined a productive attack with tight defensive chance prevention. Cruzeiro's attack has improved relative to its season average, but its recent defensive xGA is higher. Bragantino's scoring results look stronger than its recent underlying chance balance, while Bahia have allowed unusually high xGA.
These observations describe each team's latest five completed league games within a **338-match competition snapshot**. They are not probabilities for upcoming fixtures. Explore the Brasileirão Série A league page, Statistics and Predictions for match records and separately generated model forecasts.