Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn: can the hosts build on their latest win?

Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Paderborn on Saturday, 31 October 2026. Kick-off is scheduled for 14:30 UTC. Gladbach ended a poor run with a 3-2 away win over Stuttgart in their latest Bundesliga match. Paderborn also arrive after a victory, having beaten Hamburger SV 1-0 at home.

The two sides have had different results in recent weeks. Gladbach have lost four of their last five league matches, while Paderborn have won twice. Yet SmartMatchData's locked AI model makes Gladbach the favourites at home. The gap is not huge, so recent form and home advantage point in different directions.

Gladbach's recent Bundesliga form

Gladbach have taken three points from their last five Bundesliga games. They have one win and four defeats, scoring eight goals and conceding fifteen.

Their latest result was a 3-2 win away to Stuttgart on 23 October. Before that, Gladbach lost 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim, lost 2-1 away to Köln, lost 4-3 at home to Mainz and were beaten 5-0 away by Freiburg.

The win at Stuttgart was important because it stopped a four-game losing run. Gladbach scored three goals in that match and showed they can compete away from home. However, they have conceded at least two goals in every one of their last five league games. That is a clear problem to solve before facing Paderborn.

Paderborn's recent Bundesliga form

Paderborn have collected seven points from their last five league matches. They have two wins, one draw and two defeats, scoring six goals and conceding eight.

Their most recent match was a 1-0 home win against Hamburger SV on 24 October. Before that, they drew 2-2 away to Werder Bremen, lost 2-0 at home to Stuttgart, beat Hoffenheim 3-1 at home and lost 3-0 away to Borussia Dortmund.

Paderborn have kept one clean sheet in their last five matches. Their latest win showed that they can protect a narrow lead. But they have also failed to score twice in this run, including in the defeats to Stuttgart and Dortmund. Finding goals away from home could be the main challenge against Gladbach.

Gladbach vs Paderborn: recent results compared

Paderborn have the stronger five-match record. They have seven points compared with Gladbach's three. Paderborn have also conceded only eight goals, while Gladbach have allowed fifteen.

Gladbach have scored eight goals, two more than Paderborn, but their defensive record has cost them points. Paderborn have won more games and have been harder to score against. The hosts' latest victory over Stuttgart is a positive sign, though one result does not erase the problems seen in earlier matches.

These figures come from completed Bundesliga results. Full expected-goals data are not available for all ten team appearances in this comparison, so this preview does not present an incomplete xG average as a full five-game figure.

SmartMatchData AI prediction: Gladbach vs Paderborn

SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match model gives **Gladbach a 48.5% chance of winning**, **a draw 24.4%** and **Paderborn a 27.0% chance of winning**. The home side have the highest win probability despite their weaker recent results. The displayed percentages total 99.9% because of rounding.

The model also estimates **Over 2.5 goals at 62.3%** and **both teams to score (BTTS Yes) at 63.5%**. Gladbach's recent games have often featured goals at both ends. They have scored in four of their last five matches, but have conceded in all five. Paderborn's recent results have been less open, which is a reason to avoid treating the goals forecast as certain.

The 1X2 percentages cover three separate match results. Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes are different predictions. They do not add to the home, draw and away probabilities, and none of these numbers guarantees a result.

What could decide the match?

Gladbach's defence is the main concern for the hosts. Fifteen goals conceded in five games is a high total. If Paderborn find space and take their chances, they could make this a difficult afternoon for Gladbach.

Paderborn have been more stable in recent results, but their attack has been less productive. They have scored six goals in five matches and failed to score in two. Gladbach may have more chances to control the game if Paderborn struggle to create clear openings.

The hosts' 3-2 win at Stuttgart could give them confidence. Paderborn's 1-0 victory over Hamburg could do the same for the visitors. Both teams have a reason to believe they can take points, but neither recent result proves what will happen next.

Final Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Paderborn prediction

Paderborn have the better recent points total and a stronger defensive record. Gladbach have struggled for results, but they come into the game after a valuable win and have the higher home-win probability in SmartMatchData's model.

**The locked AI forecast is Gladbach 48.5%, draw 24.4% and Paderborn 27.0%.** Over 2.5 goals is rated at 62.3%, while BTTS Yes stands at 63.5%. Gladbach are the model's preferred winner, but the match still carries plenty of uncertainty.

Data and methodology

Recent form uses each team's five most recent completed Bundesliga games through 29 October 2026. The probabilities come from SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match forecast. Missing xG data, unconfirmed lineups and unverified injury claims have not been used.