The numbers give Lech a formidable assignment in Lisbon

Benfica host Lech Poznań on Thursday, 5 November 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 20:00 UTC. Benfica have won all three recorded Europa League league-phase matches, scoring ten goals and conceding two. Lech have one point from three games, with nine goals conceded and just one scored.

There is no need to manufacture a close comparison where the evidence shows a clear difference. Benfica have combined attacking production with an effective recent domestic run. Lech's defensive figures, especially the chances conceded against Bayer Leverkusen, underline the scale of the challenge. Yet Lech's latest draw with Sunderland gives them at least one performance to build on.

Benfica have found several routes to victory

Benfica began the league phase with a 2-0 win away at Milan. That result was particularly efficient: Benfica generated **0.63 xG**, while Milan produced **1.03 xG**. The scoreline favoured the visitors, but the chance balance did not. It was a reminder that clinical finishing can win a match even without sustained attacking superiority.

The next two European performances were much more convincing. Benfica defeated Celtic 4-1 at home on 15 October, creating **3.18 xG** and allowing **1.36 xGA**. They followed with a 4-1 victory away to Omonia Nicosia on 22 October, producing **3.19 xG** against **0.83 xGA**. These were not merely four-goal scorelines built on unlikely shots; Benfica generated substantial attacking chance quality in both matches.

Across the three fixtures, Benfica have scored **ten goals from 7.00 xG** and conceded **two from 3.22 xGA**. They have finished above expectation and prevented opponents from converting every opportunity, but the attacking xG total is strong in its own right. Their two most recent European performances account for 6.37 xG between them.

The domestic record reinforces the sense of momentum. Benfica beat Vitória SC 2-0, Santa Clara 2-1 and Alverca 1-0 in their three most recent recorded Liga Portugal matches. Against Vitória, they created **2.76 xG** and allowed only **0.43**. Their latest win over Alverca came with **1.60 xG** to **0.56**. The attack has not produced four goals every week, but the chance balance has remained favourable.

The Primeira Liga page provides more context on Benfica's domestic performances.

Lech's defensive record demands urgent improvement

Lech's European campaign began with a 4-0 defeat away to Crystal Palace. The Polish side generated **1.55 xG**, compared with Palace's **2.23**, so the scoreline was harsher than the difference in chance quality alone might suggest. Lech created opportunities but failed to finish them.

The following fixture was much more worrying. Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 in Poznań on 15 October, producing **5.16 xG** while Lech managed only **0.50**. That enormous disparity indicates sustained defensive exposure. Against a side with Benfica's recent attacking output, allowing chances at that rate would be extremely dangerous.

Lech's most recent European match brought a point. They drew 1-1 at home with Sunderland on 22 October, creating **2.47 xG** against Sunderland's **2.76**. Both teams generated plenty of dangerous opportunities, and Lech finally scored their first league-phase goal. However, conceding 2.76 xGA still leaves major questions about defensive control.

Across three games, Lech have scored **one goal from 4.52 xG** and conceded **nine from 10.15 xGA**. Their attacking finishing has been notably poor, but their defensive problems cannot be explained away as bad luck. The opponents have consistently created high-quality chances, especially Leverkusen.

A mismatch in chance prevention, not just goals scored

The biggest difference between the clubs is at the back. Benfica have allowed **3.22 xGA** across three European fixtures; Lech have allowed **10.15**. Benfica's attack has generated **7.00 xG**, compared with Lech's **4.52**. Both ends of the pitch therefore favour the hosts on the recorded evidence.

The contrast also explains why Lech's Sunderland draw is encouraging but incomplete. Creating 2.47 xG demonstrates that the visitors can threaten opponents. Conceding 2.76 xGA in the same match shows that their improved attacking output did not solve their defensive vulnerability.

For Benfica, the tactical challenge is to create pressure without assuming the result will arrive automatically. Their win at Milan was achieved despite an inferior xG total, and finishing can fluctuate even for an in-form team. For Lech, the immediate priority is to prevent Benfica from repeatedly reaching the positions that produced more than three expected goals against both Celtic and Omonia.

Read SmartMatchData's Europa League xG analysis for broader competition context, or explore the expected goals guide to understand the difference between goals and chance quality.

What Lech must change to compete

Lech cannot rely solely on a better finishing performance. Their 4.52 xG from three matches suggests they have created enough opportunities to score more than once, but the 10.15 xGA allowed is the more serious problem against Benfica. They need to restrict the volume and quality of chances, not simply hope the hosts miss them.

Benfica, meanwhile, have good reason to approach the fixture with confidence. Their European attack has been particularly productive in October, and their latest domestic results show an ability to win lower-scoring games as well.

**Benfica hold the stronger statistical position, but the real test is whether they can convert that advantage into sustained pressure and a result.** Lech's best chance is to make the contest more controlled than their matches against Leverkusen and Sunderland, while taking the opportunities that have too often gone unfinished.

No verified locked SmartMatchData model probabilities were available for this fixture. Numerical 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS forecasts are therefore not invented.

Data scope

The European comparison covers three completed 2026/27 Europa League league-phase matches per team through 22 October. Benfica's domestic context includes Liga Portugal matches through 2 November. All cited results and xG/xGA values come from SmartMatchData's recorded match statistics. Lech's domestic form is not inferred without a comparable verified dataset, and unverified team news is excluded.