Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: strong model favourite meets uneven recent form

Bayer Leverkusen host VfB Stuttgart on Saturday, 31 October 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 14:30 UTC. SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 forecast gives Leverkusen a substantial home advantage, but the recent results tell a more complicated story. Leverkusen lost 3-0 away to Hoffenheim in their latest Bundesliga game, while Stuttgart have suffered consecutive defeats.

Leverkusen have taken eight points from their last five league matches. Stuttgart have collected three. That difference supports a home-leaning preview, but Leverkusen's latest defeat is a reminder that a strong model probability does not make any result certain.

Bayer Leverkusen's last five Bundesliga matches

Leverkusen's recent five-game league record is two wins, two draws and one defeat. They scored nine goals and conceded nine, collecting eight points. Their most recent result was a 3-0 defeat away to Hoffenheim on 25 October, following a 1-1 home draw against Freiburg.

Before that, Leverkusen won 4-3 away at Mainz and beat RB Leipzig 2-0 at home, after a 2-2 away draw against Augsburg. The victory at Mainz illustrates their attacking potential, while the loss to Hoffenheim shows how exposed they can become when a match turns against them.

Leverkusen have scored in four of their last five league fixtures, including four goals at Mainz and two against Leipzig. They have also conceded three goals in two separate matches. That mixture of attacking output and defensive volatility makes their recent form less convincing than a simple points total might suggest.

Stuttgart's recent form: four defeats in five matches

Stuttgart have taken three points from their last five Bundesliga fixtures, with one win and four defeats. They scored five goals and conceded seven. Their latest result was a 3-2 home defeat against Borussia Mönchengladbach on 23 October, following a 1-0 loss away to Hamburger SV.

Their only win in the five-game stretch was a 2-0 away victory against Paderborn. Stuttgart also lost 1-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund and 2-1 away to Hoffenheim. The results show that Stuttgart have often remained within one goal of their opponents, but they have struggled to turn close matches into points.

Stuttgart's recent scoring record is modest compared with Leverkusen's. Five goals in five games leave little margin for defensive mistakes. Against a home side with Leverkusen's attacking output, Stuttgart may need both greater efficiency in front of goal and a disciplined defensive display.

Leverkusen vs Stuttgart: last five league matches compared

Leverkusen lead Stuttgart by five points, eight to three, and have scored nine goals compared with Stuttgart's five. Leverkusen have conceded nine goals, two more than Stuttgart's seven. Both teams have kept one clean sheet in their last five league games.

The comparison is not one-sided. Leverkusen have the better results and stronger scoring return, but their defensive record is weaker. Stuttgart's four defeats are a concern, yet the visitors have generally conceded fewer goals in this recent sample.

These figures are verified completed-match results, not expected-goals measurements. Recent xG and xGA coverage is incomplete across the five fixtures for both clubs, so this preview does not manufacture chance-quality averages. See Expected Goals Explained for how those statistics should be used.

SmartMatchData AI prediction: Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart

SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match forecast, recorded on 29 October 2026, assigns **Bayer Leverkusen a 65.2% chance of winning**, **a draw 18.8%** and **VfB Stuttgart a 16.0% chance of winning**. Leverkusen are clear favourites in this model, with a home-win probability more than four times Stuttgart's away-win estimate.

The same model estimates **Over 2.5 goals at 72.5%** and **both teams to score (BTTS Yes) at 65.7%**. These are comparatively strong goals-market leans. Leverkusen's nine goals scored and nine conceded in five league games provide context for an open-match forecast, while Stuttgart's recent struggles add uncertainty about how much the visitors might contribute.

The home, draw and away probabilities form a single 1X2 distribution. Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes are separate market probabilities and should not be added to those outcomes. Even a 65.2% home-win estimate leaves a combined 34.8% chance of a draw or Stuttgart victory.

What could decide Leverkusen vs Stuttgart?

Leverkusen's attacking potential is their clearest advantage. The 4-3 win at Mainz and 2-0 victory over Leipzig show that they can score against different opponents. At the same time, the 3-0 loss at Hoffenheim underlines why the home side cannot assume that recent attacking output will automatically produce a win.

Stuttgart have lost four of their last five Bundesliga games, but several defeats have been narrow. Their 2-0 win at Paderborn also shows they can win away from home and keep a clean sheet. If Stuttgart can prevent Leverkusen from creating an early lead, the contest may remain closer than the headline probability suggests.

An early Leverkusen goal could force Stuttgart to commit more players forward and open space. A disciplined Stuttgart performance could instead increase the relevance of the draw. These are plausible match dynamics, not confirmed tactical instructions, starting lineups or predictions of individual events.

Final Bayer Leverkusen vs Stuttgart prediction

Leverkusen have the stronger recent points return, the higher goals-scored total and a clear edge in SmartMatchData's locked forecast. Stuttgart arrive after two straight losses and have taken only three points from their last five league fixtures. Nevertheless, Leverkusen's nine goals conceded and their latest 3-0 defeat make defensive reliability an important caveat.

**SmartMatchData's locked 1X2 probabilities are Leverkusen 65.2%, draw 18.8% and Stuttgart 16.0%.** Over 2.5 stands at 72.5%, with BTTS Yes at 65.7%. The model favours Leverkusen and an attacking game, but these are pre-match estimates rather than guarantees or exact-score predictions.

For more context, explore our Bundesliga statistics and Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund prediction.

Data and methodology

Recent form uses each team's five most recent completed Bundesliga fixtures through 29 October 2026. SmartMatchData's separate 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS estimates come from its locked v1.1 pre-match forecast recorded on 29 October before kick-off. Incomplete xG samples, unverified injuries, unconfirmed lineups and invented exact-score forecasts have been excluded.