AZ's European progress is being tested by domestic frustration
AZ Alkmaar host Juventus on Thursday, 5 November 2026, in a Europa League fixture scheduled for 20:00 UTC. The Dutch side have won two of their three recorded league-phase matches, but their recent Eredivisie results tell a very different story. Juventus arrive unbeaten in Europe, yet they too have struggled to turn opportunities into goals in several domestic fixtures.
This match brings together two sides whose European performances have been stronger than their latest league scorelines. AZ need to rediscover the attacking sharpness behind their victories over Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Ararat-Armenia. Juventus will aim to preserve their unbeaten continental start without repeating the finishing problems that have contributed to a difficult run in Serie A.
AZ have created chances without collecting league points
AZ lost 1-0 at Ajax on 31 October despite creating **1.25 xG** against Ajax's **0.66**. That followed a 2-0 home defeat to Twente, where AZ generated **1.24 xG** but conceded **2.04 xGA**. Earlier, they were beaten 1-0 at Cambuur after producing **1.50 xG**, marginally above the hosts' **1.45**.
Those results should not be grouped together as identical performances. AZ were out-created by Twente, but the Ajax and Cambuur defeats came despite competitive or superior attacking chance quality. Their recent Eredivisie scoring problems have therefore involved both finishing and, in some matches, defensive exposure.
The Europa League has offered a more productive outlet. AZ lost their opening league-phase match 1-0 at Sunderland, generating **1.32 xG** while allowing **2.96 xGA**. The chance balance supported Sunderland's advantage. AZ then beat Hapoel Be'er Sheva 2-1 at home with **2.71 xG** against **1.07 xGA**, a much more convincing attacking performance.
On 22 October, AZ won 4-0 away to Ararat-Armenia. Their **1.64 xG** was well above the hosts' **0.34**, but scoring four from that chance total also reflected efficient finishing. Across three European fixtures, AZ have scored six goals from **5.67 xG** and conceded two from **4.37 xGA**. Their attacking return is close to expectation overall, while the defensive goals-against figure is lower than the chances allowed.
The Eredivisie page provides additional context for AZ's domestic results.
Juventus' European xG is strong, but recent finishing has faltered
Juventus opened their recorded Europa League league phase with a 5-0 win over NEC Nijmegen, producing **4.20 xG** and allowing only **0.82 xGA**. That was a convincing performance in both the score and the underlying numbers.
They followed with a 2-1 victory away at Celta Vigo. Juventus created **1.89 xG** against Celta's **1.00**, another favourable chance balance. Their third European match ended 0-0 at home against Rennes on 22 October, despite Juventus generating **2.21 xG** and conceding **1.71 xGA**. A goalless result from that level of attacking output highlights the gap between chance creation and finishing in a single fixture.
Across three league-phase matches, Juventus have scored seven goals from **8.30 xG** and conceded one from **3.53 xGA**. Their overall chance balance is clearly positive. The defence has also allowed fewer actual goals than its expected-goals-against total suggests.
Recent Serie A results are less reassuring. Juventus lost 3-0 to Lazio on 18 October despite allowing only **0.57 xGA**; they then drew 0-0 at Lecce and lost 2-0 at Genoa. The Genoa defeat came with **1.28 xG** for Juventus against **0.97** for the hosts. Juventus recovered with a 2-0 win over Napoli on 1 November, but generated just **0.79 xG** while restricting Napoli to **0.52**.
These matches demonstrate why Juventus' European goal total cannot be treated as a guarantee of reliable finishing. Their Serie A competition page offers the broader domestic picture.
A contrast in how the teams create their advantages
Juventus have produced **8.30 xG** across three Europa League games, compared with AZ's **5.67**. That is a meaningful attacking difference over an equal number of fixtures, although the opponents and venues have varied. Juventus' biggest contribution came against NEC, while AZ's strongest single attacking display came against Hapoel Be'er Sheva.
Defensively, Juventus have allowed **3.53 xGA**, compared with AZ's **4.37**. The visitors therefore have the stronger three-match European chance balance at both ends. But Juventus' domestic scoreless run and AZ's recent Eredivisie defeats show how quickly that underlying advantage can fail to translate into results.
For AZ, the priority is to create the sort of sustained attacking pressure they managed against Hapoel without leaving the space that Sunderland exploited. Juventus will look to turn their European chance creation into a more decisive scoreline than the goalless Rennes match, while avoiding the wastefulness seen in recent domestic games.
SmartMatchData's Europa League xG analysis provides wider competition context. The expected goals guide explains why a side can create the better opportunities and still lose.
What the numbers suggest before kick-off
Juventus have the stronger European underlying record and remain unbeaten in the league phase. AZ have won their last two European fixtures, including a commanding result away from home, but their domestic losing run makes consistency a concern.
**The key question is whether AZ can impose the attacking quality of their European wins against a Juventus side that has generally controlled the better chances in this competition.** If Juventus finish more efficiently than they did against Rennes, they will be difficult to contain. If AZ can create enough high-quality opportunities, the visitors' recent domestic results show they are not beyond challenge.
This is a qualitative match assessment. No verified locked SmartMatchData model probabilities were available for this fixture, so numerical 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS forecasts are not invented.
Data scope
The European comparison uses three completed 2026/27 Europa League league-phase matches per club through 22 October. Domestic context includes Eredivisie fixtures through 31 October and Serie A fixtures through 1 November. Match results and xG/xGA values come from SmartMatchData's recorded statistics. Unverified lineups and injuries are excluded.