Augsburg vs Freiburg: visitors have the stronger recent form
Augsburg host Freiburg on Saturday, 31 October 2026, with kick-off set for 14:30 UTC. Augsburg are still looking for their first win in five Bundesliga matches. Freiburg have won twice in the same period and have scored more goals. SmartMatchData's AI model also gives Freiburg the better chance of winning, although the gap is not large enough to rule out a home result.
The teams have both been involved in games with goals. Augsburg have scored in each of their last five league matches, but they have also conceded in every one. Freiburg have scored in all five as well. That makes the goals markets an important part of this preview.
Augsburg's recent Bundesliga results
Augsburg have taken three points from their last five league games. They have drawn three times and lost twice, scoring ten goals and conceding twelve.
Their latest result was a 1-1 home draw with Union Berlin on 24 October. A week earlier, Augsburg lost 4-3 away to Elversberg. They also drew 2-2 at home against Bayern Munich, lost 3-2 away to Werder Bremen and drew 2-2 with Bayer Leverkusen.
There is one clear positive in those results: Augsburg have scored in every game. They put two goals past Bayern and Leverkusen and scored three away at Elversberg. The problem is at the other end. Augsburg have not kept a clean sheet in this five-match run. They have often scored enough to compete, but not enough to win.
Freiburg's recent Bundesliga results
Freiburg have collected eight points from their last five league matches. They have won twice, drawn twice and lost once, scoring eleven goals and conceding seven.
Their latest match ended in a 3-1 home defeat to Bayern Munich on 25 October. Before that, Freiburg drew 1-1 away to Bayer Leverkusen, beat Schalke 2-1 at home, drew 2-2 away to Eintracht Frankfurt and won 5-0 at home against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Freiburg have scored in all five games. Their 5-0 win over Mönchengladbach was the standout result, but they have also found goals in tougher matches. They have kept one clean sheet in this period, which suggests their defence can still be tested.
Augsburg vs Freiburg: how do the teams compare?
Freiburg have the better recent record. They have eight points to Augsburg's three, with two wins compared with none for the hosts. Freiburg have scored eleven goals and conceded seven. Augsburg have scored ten and conceded twelve.
The scoring totals are close, but the goals conceded show a bigger difference. Augsburg have allowed five more goals in the same number of matches. That helps explain why they have struggled to turn goals into wins.
Both teams have scored in every one of their last five Bundesliga games. However, that does not mean both will score again. Past results are useful context, not proof of what will happen next.
The available xG data do not cover every match in this five-game sample. For that reason, this preview uses verified goals and results rather than incomplete expected-goals averages.
SmartMatchData AI prediction: Augsburg vs Freiburg
SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 model gives **Augsburg a 33.7% chance of winning**, **a draw 22.7%** and **Freiburg a 43.6% chance of winning**. Freiburg have the highest individual win probability, but Augsburg still have a real chance of taking all three points.
The model sees a stronger signal in the goals markets. It puts **Over 2.5 goals at 72.8%** and **both teams to score (BTTS Yes) at 72.5%**. Those figures fit the recent results. Augsburg's last five matches have produced 22 total goals, while Freiburg's have produced 18.
The three match-result probabilities describe different possible outcomes and add up to 100% after rounding. Over 2.5 and BTTS are separate predictions. They should not be added to the win and draw figures.
What could decide the match?
Augsburg need to defend better. Their attack has scored ten goals in five games, but twelve conceded have left them without a win. If they continue to give opponents chances, Freiburg may be able to take advantage.
Freiburg have been more effective at turning goals into points. Their recent wins over Schalke and Mönchengladbach show that they can finish games strongly. Still, the defeat to Bayern and the goals conceded against Frankfurt show that Freiburg are not always secure at the back.
The first goal could be important. If Augsburg score early, the home crowd may help them build confidence. If Freiburg take the lead, Augsburg may need to push forward and leave more space behind. These are possible match situations, not claims about confirmed tactics or starting lineups.
Final Augsburg vs Freiburg prediction
Freiburg come into this match with better recent results and a stronger defensive record. Augsburg have scored regularly, but they have struggled to protect their goal. SmartMatchData's model gives Freiburg the edge, while the goals estimates suggest that both teams could contribute to the score.
**The final AI forecast is Augsburg 33.7%, draw 22.7% and Freiburg 43.6%.** Over 2.5 goals stands at 72.8%, and BTTS Yes at 72.5%. Freiburg are the model's preferred winner, but the result is far from certain.
Data and methodology
Recent form covers the five most recent completed Bundesliga matches for each team through 29 October 2026. All percentages come from SmartMatchData's locked v1.1 pre-match model. Complete five-game xG data, unconfirmed lineups and unverified injury claims have not been used.