Arsenal's strongest number was at the back
Arsenal scored 71 goals in the 2025/26 Premier League, but its most revealing number was 28.26. That was the total expected goals against (xGA) the team allowed across 38 matches, the lowest in the division. Manchester City created more attacking xG, yet Arsenal's balance between chance creation and prevention produced the league's best xG difference, +36.83.
That defensive edge did not come from a tiny sample. SmartMatchData's dataset contains all 38 of Arsenal's completed league matches, with full-quality xG for both teams in every fixture. Arsenal generated 65.09 xG, scored 71 goals and conceded 27 from chances worth 28.26 xGA. The figures describe the opportunities created and allowed, not every tactical reason behind them.
Home form: strong results, even stronger chance prevention
At home, Arsenal won 15 of its 19 league matches, drew twice and lost twice. It scored 41 goals and conceded just 11. The xG figures help explain the balance: 34.29 attacking xG and only 12.56 xGA across those home fixtures. That works out to approximately 1.80 xG created and 0.66 xGA allowed per match.
The contrast matters. Arsenal did not merely collect home wins while routinely allowing high-quality chances. Its opponents generated relatively little estimated chance quality across the 19-match home sample. Still, xGA is not a complete tactical explanation: it measures the shots opponents took, not every attacking move Arsenal prevented before a shot occurred.
Away from home, the defensive record remained strong
Arsenal's away record was less dominant in results but remained impressive in the underlying numbers. It won 11 of 19 matches, drew five and lost three, scoring 30 goals and conceding 16. Its away xG was 30.80, with xGA at 15.70. That equates to about 1.62 xG created and 0.83 xGA conceded per match.
The difference between 0.66 home xGA per match and 0.83 away is meaningful as a description of the season, but it should not be treated as proof that the venue alone caused it. Opposition strength, match state, lineups and fixture timing can all influence a home-away split. For a fuller explanation, read Home vs Away Football Statistics.
Why Arsenal topped the xG difference table
Manchester City led the league in attacking xG with 70.89, compared with Arsenal's 65.09. But City allowed 43.95 xGA, substantially more than Arsenal's 28.26. The result was an xG difference of +26.94 for City and +36.83 for Arsenal.
Arsenal's defensive advantage was large enough to outweigh City's stronger attacking chance creation. That is the central statistical story of the comparison. xG difference is a measure of estimated chance-quality balance, not a substitute for league points, silverware or a forecast of what the next season will bring.
Where the numbers stop and the football begins
A strong defensive xGA figure can reflect organisation, pressing, control of territory and limiting opponents to difficult shots. But this dataset does not establish how much credit belongs to any individual defender, midfielder or coach. Assigning precise contributions without player-level or tactical event data would be guesswork.
That is why this review concentrates on what can be verified: Arsenal's 38 results, the chances it created and conceded, and the difference between its home and away performances. Player-specific conclusions would require a separate, properly sourced analysis rather than being inferred from team totals.
Methodology and data notes
This review uses SmartMatchData's stored Premier League 2025/26 matches, including 19 home and 19 away fixtures for Arsenal. All 38 have complete scores and full-quality xG data. Home and away totals are summed from the relevant team-side statistics, and per-match averages are calculated from 19 fixtures in each split. The numbers are rounded for display.
Expected goals and expected goals against are statistical estimates, and providers can disagree on individual shot values. They help explain the quality of chances, not guarantee results or assign credit to specific players. See the Arsenal team page for current team information, our Premier League 2025/26 xG review for league-wide context and xG vs xGA Explained for the underlying definitions.