Boca's recent chance balance stands out, but the sample needs context

Boca Juniors have allowed just 2.90 expected goals against (xGA) across their five most recent xG-covered Argentina Primera matches. Rosario Central have scored thirteen goals from 8.59 expected goals (xG) in their equivalent five-game sample. Platense have created more xG than Boca over five covered games, but have allowed substantially more chances.

These are three different kinds of form: defensive control, finishing outcomes and attacking chance creation. Looking only at points or goals would obscure the distinction.

There is a major data-coverage qualification. SmartMatchData records **483 completed Argentina Primera 2026 fixtures**, but **only 242 have both teams' xG and xGA**. The analysis below selects each club's **five most recent matches with xG coverage**, not necessarily its five most recent matches overall. Matches without verified xG are excluded from these calculations. The latest completed fixture in the database is dated **5 November 2026 (UTC)**, but individual clubs' xG-covered samples end on different dates. This is not a full-season xG ranking.

The competition's different phases and unequal match counts also make raw totals misleading. For the broader context, read our Argentina Primera season xG analysis.

Boca Juniors: defensive control underpins the strongest highlighted balance

Boca have scored **nine goals** and conceded **three** across their five most recent xG-covered matches, generating **8.24 xG** and allowing **2.90 xGA**. Their expected-goal difference is **+5.34**, equivalent to **+1.07 per match**.

The defensive figure is the more distinctive component. Boca have allowed only **0.58 xGA per covered game** in this window, suggesting opponents created relatively little high-quality shooting opportunity.

Across all **16 xG-covered Boca matches**, the team have accumulated **28.04 xG**, or **1.75 per match**, and **13.59 xGA**, approximately **0.85 per game**. The five-game attacking rate of **1.65 xG** is slightly below the covered-season rate, but the recent defensive rate is lower.

This is not a case of a suddenly explosive attack. Boca's short-run edge comes largely from limiting chances against them.

Platense: strong recent chance creation with a thinner defensive margin

Platense have generated **9.21 xG** in their five most recent covered matches, or **1.84 per game**, while scoring **seven goals**. They have allowed **5.35 xGA**, or **1.07 per game**, and conceded five.

The expected-goal difference is **+3.86**. Their attacking xG total is higher than Boca's over the equivalent number of covered matches, but their defensive xGA is also substantially higher.

Across **15 xG-covered fixtures**, Platense have created **19.54 xG**, or **1.30 per match**, and allowed **19.43 xGA**, approximately **1.30 per game**. Their last-five attacking rate is markedly stronger than their longer covered-sample rate, while defensive xGA has also improved modestly.

The contrast suggests a positive recent change in chance balance, although it cannot establish whether that change will persist against different opponents.

Rosario Central: thirteen goals from 8.59 xG

Rosario Central's last five xG-covered matches have produced **thirteen goals scored** and **four conceded**. Their underlying chance figures are **8.59 xG** and **5.17 xGA**, an expected-goal difference of **+3.42**.

That means Rosario have scored **4.41 more goals than their xG estimate** in this window. Their finishing and scoring outcomes have been excellent, but thirteen goals should not be interpreted as evidence that they created thirteen expected goals' worth of chances.

Across **18 covered matches**, Rosario have generated **26.69 xG**, or **1.48 per game**, and allowed **19.86 xGA**, approximately **1.10 per match**. Their recent attacking rate of **1.72 xG per game** is above that longer-run average, while their recent defensive rate of **1.03 xGA** is slightly lower.

Rosario's recent run therefore combines genuine improvement in attacking chance creation with a notably high conversion outcome. The goals versus xG guide explains why those two factors should be assessed separately.

River Plate: a positive balance built on defence

River Plate have scored **seven goals** and conceded **two** across their five most recent xG-covered fixtures. They have created **7.30 xG** and allowed **3.96 xGA**, giving them an expected-goal difference of **+3.34**.

The attack has generated **1.46 xG per match** in this short window, while the defence has allowed **0.79 xGA per game**.

Across **20 covered matches**, River have accumulated **29.45 xG**, or **1.47 per match**, and allowed **16.88 xGA**, approximately **0.84 per game**. Their last-five attacking and defensive rates are therefore remarkably close to the longer covered-sample rates.

River's recent results have been favourable, but the xG figures do not point to a major shift in underlying chance quality. They suggest continuity.

Barracas Central and Newell's: two different routes to positive xG differences

Barracas Central have scored **ten goals** and conceded **six** in their last five covered matches, creating **7.40 xG** and allowing **3.96 xGA**. Their expected-goal difference is **+3.44**, with a low defensive rate of **0.79 xGA per match**.

Across **15 covered fixtures**, Barracas have generated **15.48 xG**, or **1.03 per game**, and allowed **13.45 xGA**, or **0.90**. Their recent attacking rate of **1.48 xG** is noticeably higher than the longer covered-sample average.

Newell's Old Boys have scored only **three goals** and conceded **three** across their five most recent covered games, despite creating **6.06 xG** and allowing just **2.94 xGA**. Their expected-goal difference is **+3.12**.

Across **15 covered matches**, Newell's have generated **15.03 xG**, or **1.00 per match**, and allowed **13.66 xGA**, or **0.91**. Their recent defensive rate of **0.59 xGA** is especially low, while scoring has lagged behind the chance-quality estimate.

Barracas' recent goals have exceeded their xG, whereas Newell's have scored far fewer than their xG. Similar positive underlying balances can therefore produce very different scorelines.

Why these five-game figures must be read carefully

The last five xG-covered matches are not necessarily consecutive fixtures. Because 241 of the 483 completed competition matches lack complete xG coverage, an intervening match may be absent from a club's five-game xG sample. These windows also end on different dates for different clubs.

Furthermore, the 2026 competition includes different phases, and clubs have played unequal numbers of covered matches. The season comparisons here refer only to the xG-covered subset, not to every league match. Opponent quality, venue, penalties, red cards and game states are not adjusted for.

The small-sample statistics guide explains why five-game averages should not be extrapolated mechanically. The home and away Argentina Primera analysis adds venue context, while the xG versus xGA guide covers the two underlying measures.

What the covered data currently shows

Boca's recent advantage is led by exceptionally low xGA. Platense have improved their attacking chance creation relative to their longer covered sample. Rosario Central's strong scoring run combines higher recent xG with finishing above expectation, while River Plate's recent underlying rates look much like its wider covered-sample profile.

Barracas Central have increased attacking xG, and Newell's have allowed very little recent chance quality despite scoring only three times in five covered games.

These are **five-game comparisons within a 242-match xG-covered subset**, not a full-season table or probabilities for future fixtures. Explore the Argentina Primera league page, Statistics and Predictions for competition records and separately generated forecasts.